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WHEN THE STAKE is as high as it is now, there is little need to exaggerate, the facts generally speak for themselves.
This is something that Taoiseach Micheál Martin clearly appreciates as he reflects on the most important decision he has faced as a Taoiseach, and possibly the most important decision he will face as a Taoiseach.
Hours after it was made public that NPHET had again recommended that the country go to Level 5, Martin was in Brussels telling reporters that “the situation is very serious.”
Is not wrong. The government now faces the prospect of a virtual economic shutdown of the country for the second time in seven months. This time, just nine weeks before Christmas, and at a point where social cohesion is nowhere near where it was in the spring.
Businesses across the country that hope this annus horribilis will at least end the usual holiday spending spree will also be disappointed. At least until December, but even that cannot be guaranteed.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar voiced this concern yesterday, repeatedly saying that “an exit strategy” is vital for any second block.
To be clear about what it implies for a second, Level 5 would mean that only essential workers commute to work and only essential outlets remain open. And that’s just to start.
The Minister of Education has been clear about the government’s “absolute determination” that schools will remain open. Teachers unions I may still need some conviction, but nevertheless.
The Taoiseach appeared to reiterate the government’s conviction on this yesterday, stating that NPHET’s advice was based on two priorities: protecting the vulnerable and keeping children in school.
“I agree with NPHET in terms of the priorities that we all share,” he said.
There’s no question that there will be a reluctance to pull the trigger at Level 5, and Taoiseach himself warned that it could mean some businesses shutting down for good.
Significantly, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe will be present at today’s meeting between Martin, Varadkar, and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan.
The Minister of Public Expenditure, Michael McGrath, will also be present and the Covid-19 Cabinet Committee will also be convened.
Understandably, given his reporting, Donohoe has been among the loudest in describing the potential economic cost of going to Level 5.
Last week he delivered a tough assessment of what it would mean for jobs, with McGrath stepping in to say the cub cost 200 million euros a week during the first lockdown.
For his part, Varadkar has been able to paint himself as a level 5 skeptic, or at least a reluctant adoptee.
If the general situation were not so dire, perhaps it would be worth commenting further on how the Tánaiste has managed to be both the face of the first closure and the interrogator of a possible second.
If the answer to Covid is the political question of our time, Varadkar has managed to have a foot on both sides.
Two weeks ago he told Claire Byrne Live that NPHET had “not thought” of his first Level 5 recommendation. Yesterday, Varadkar reverted to that same language but carefully avoided directly mentioning Tony Holohan and company.
“You have to think carefully about the move to Level 5, not just the public health implications, but all the other implications as well,” he said.
On the opposition side, Sinn Féin has focused on asking the government to make a decision one way or another. “That means they need to meet now,” Mary Lou McDonald said yesterday.
Alan Kelly from Labor seemed to want to find a middle ground, advocating for the whole country to move to Level 4.
If Martin decides to take NPHET’s advice after rejecting it a fortnight ago, he will also go against some influential members of his own party.
Franks backbench TD Jim O’Callaghan and Barry Cowen have come out against a move to level 4 or 5, with Cowen tweeting that we should not be “running and hiding from Covid”.
O’Callaghan was not so casual in his rejection of the advice, but claimed that another lockdown “is not a valid option.”
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The Dublin South TD has spoken out in arguing that the government should make its own decisions when it comes to Covid, saying TheJournal.ie that NPHET advice should not be “blindly followed.”
Of course, for now at least, O’Callaghan can speak with the luxury of not having to make any of those decisions himself.
Advocating for a different course is one thing, but the reality of leading a country in the present moment and not in the future is that you have to deal with it right now.
For Martin and his coalition partners, they are faced with the reality of a virus that is currently spreading out of control. The same situation presented itself to them two weeks ago but, in the Taoiseach’s own words in his speech on Wednesday, “we just weren’t ready” for Level 5.
Fifteen days later, the question is are we now?
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