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The strength of the Covid-19 infection is “three to four times greater” than what health chiefs would have liked to see entering the festive period.
Peaking at tonight’s bi-weekly Covid-19 press conference, Maynooth University President and Ireland Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group Chair Professor Philip Nolan said yes the ‘R’ number reproductive, which is at 0.8 – 1, increases to 1.2 – 1.4 during Christmas, 300 to 600 cases per day are expected in the second week of January.
He said people should exercise “extreme caution” and limit their social contacts.
“Realistically, I think there is concern that we may see reproductive numbers in the 1.4 range unless we collectively take exceptional care to limit our social contacts for the next six to eight weeks,” he said.
“If that happens, if we see a reproduction number between 1.2 and 1.4, this scenario sees us having between 300 and 600 cases per day in the second week of January.”
Professor Nolan said that the social mixing that took place in August and September gave an R number of 1.4, but anything higher “would see a faster acceleration or more rapid spread of this disease.”
“It is reasonable to worry that the level of social mixing during the Christmas period may be higher,” he said.
He spoke as six more deaths and 183 new cases of the virus were reported. However, the number of cases is believed to be around 100 cases lower, due to a technical problem with the automated system that transfers the numbers from laboratories to surveillance systems.
It is believed that there were “challenges in how it worked overnight.”
The current spread of the disease is “three to four times” higher than health chiefs would have liked, Nolan added when he warned of a “significant increase in infection.”
“We are approaching the Christmas period with a greater number of cases, a greater force of infection and a greater health burden than we would have liked. The strength of the infection is three to four times greater than we would have liked, ”he said.
“We really recommend extreme caution in terms of limiting our number of contacts per week and taking every precaution during those contacts to avoid a significant increase in infection during the Christmas and New Years period.”
Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan said that while there is concern about the current spread of the virus, it is expected that level 3 can keep the number of cases at the same level.
“We believe that, broadly speaking, a level 3 is capable of keeping numbers roughly at the same level, which is where we think we are at the moment.
“If we can maintain a high level of compliance with level 3, we have a high probability of keeping things where they are right now,” he said.
He said people should exercise “extreme caution” and limit their social contacts.
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