The north pole will be free of ice in summer

Summer Arctic sea ice is forecast to disappear before 2050, with devastating consequences for the Arctic ecosystem. The effectiveness of climate protection measures will determine how often and for how long. These are the results of a new study with 21 research institutes around the world, including McGill University.

The North Pole is currently covered in sea ice all year round. Every summer, the sea ice coverage area decreases and grows again in winter. However, as a result of global warming, the general area of ​​the Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice has shrunk rapidly in recent decades. According to the researchers, this substantially affects the ecosystem and climate of the Arctic. The sea ice cover is a hunting preserve and habitat for polar bears and seals and keeps the Arctic cool by reflecting sunlight.

“While the extent of sea ice in the Arctic is decreasing during this transition to an ice-free Arctic, annual variability increases considerably, making life difficult for local populations and ice-dependent species,” says co-author Bruno Tremblay , Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at McGill University.

The study published in Geophysical research charts analyzed recent results from 40 different climate models. Using these models, the researchers evaluated the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover in a scenario with high CO2 emissions and little climate protection. As expected, Arctic sea ice in the summer quickly disappeared in these simulations. Surprisingly, they also found that the ice disappeared in some simulations where CO2 emissions fell rapidly.

The frequency with which the Arctic will lose its sea ice cover in the future depends critically on future CO2 emissions, according to the study. If emissions are reduced rapidly, ice-free years only happen occasionally. With higher emissions, the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in most years. This tells us that humans still determine how often the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summer, depending on our future level of emissions, Tremblay says.

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SIMIP Community’s “Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6” is published in Geophysical research charts. The research was supported by funds from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation program.

DOI: https: // /doiorg /10)1029 /2019GL086749

Photos (credit: Dirk Notz): https: // /www.cen.Uni-Hamburg.Delaware/it is /about cenNews/11-news-2020 /2020-04-20-sea-ice-notz.html

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