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There has been a dramatic increase in the best grades awarded to thousands of Leaving Cert students under the calculated grade process.
A total of 60,000 Leaving Cert students will find out what grades they have earned online at 9am on Monday morning.
While these highest scores on record will benefit the class of 2020, grade inflation will devalue the scores of 10,000-20,000 college applicants whose scores were based on tests they took in previous years.
Calculated grades combine estimated teacher grades with a standardization process overseen by the Department of Education to adjust grades and further align them with results from previous years.
A breakdown of today’s results shows that teachers overestimated their students’ grades at all points on the achievement spectrum.
It was more pronounced at the top tier, where estimated maximum scores were sometimes two, three, or even four times higher than normal standards.
While the standardization process resulted in grades being adjusted downward, it still resulted in average grades in all subjects and levels that increased 4.4 percentage points over last year.
Highest level
This scale of increase is most visible in the upper grades in particular higher-level subjects.
In art, for example, the proportion of students who earned an H1 rose from 3% last year to 8.5% this year, a 166% increase from the proportion who scored higher this year.
There were also big jumps in the proportion of students earning H1 in Applied Math this year from last year (a 79 percent increase), Geography (a 54 percent increase), Irish (a 49 percent increase) , English (an increase of 43 percent). ), biology (up to 32%) and mathematics (up to 31%).
There was less prevalence of overestimation at the ordinary level, where teacher estimates were close to historical patterns.
Overall, a total of one in six (17 percent) of the teacher’s estimated grades ended up being lowered to limit the grade inflation scale.
Some 2,500 ratings – 0.6% of the total – could not be generated due to a lack of “credible evidence.”
In a statement, Education Minister Norma Foley said the past few months have been a challenging time for students, their families and school communities.
“However, I believe that what has been created is the fairest possible solution given the extraordinary circumstances we find ourselves in as we travel together through the Covid-19 pandemic,” he said.
“Today, with confidence, you can look back with pride at all that you have accomplished and boldly look forward to the next exciting phase of your lives.”
Trust
The overestimated grade scale for teachers at the upper level is reflected in the fact that a total of 60 percent of the grades at that level should have been lowered if the intention were to align them with previous years.
Education Department officials said the adjustments to the computed grade process were intended to “prioritize equity for the class of 2020 over eliminating grade-level inflation.”
If 60 percent of the estimated ratings had been lowered, they said it could have threatened confidence in the system.
CAO sources said last night that the degree of grade inflation posed “big problems” for deferred students, as point requirements will increase in many courses.
Although the CAO has estimated that up to 20,000 students will be affected, government sources put the figure closer to 10,000.
The government says it has provided more than 1,250 additional places in higher education, many of them in “high demand” courses, which will partly ease the pressure on points for these students.
Government sources indicated last night that they would monitor how many places were allocated to students in the CAO’s first round of bids on Friday afternoon before deciding whether additional measures would be needed.
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