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The Taoiseach, Tánaiste and the Foreign Minister were on the same page this morning, united in criticizing the British government’s plan to unilaterally sideline aspects of the withdrawal treaty and insisting that negotiations on a trade deal could not continue. on the grounds that the UK could ignore the parts of a deal that it didn’t like.
“Meaningful negotiations can only proceed on the basis of mutual trust,” said Micheál Martin.
Simon Coveney described the events in London as “an extraordinary change in the approach of the UK government”.
Leo Varadkar said that the statement by Northern Secretary Brandon Lewis that the British government intended to “violate international law in a very specific and limited way” was an “extraordinary statement to hear from a cabinet minister at a respected liberal democracy “.
Irish sentiments have been echoed publicly and (in spicier terms) privately across the EU, which now has a major decision to make: can it continue to negotiate a trade deal with the UK when it is in the process of violate the previous Withdrawal Agreement that the two parties signed less than a year ago?
In Dublin, while preparations for a no-deal outcome are accelerating in the knowledge that it is now a more realistic prospect than ever, the prevailing view, though by no means the only one, remains that the British government will ultimately seek to agree to a deal. trade deal, because you won’t want to accept the massive economic disruption that would result from a no deal. In other words, the Irish Government expects its British counterparts to act rationally in accordance with their own interests in the end.
And although there are parts of the Conservative Party and of British society in general that have a different view of their interests than the purely economic one, and that will accept a significant economic dislocation as the price for completely disconnecting from the EU, this is not believed to be the reason. see on top of the British government.
After all, trade between countries, like the one that will exist between the UK and the EU in the future, requires rules and the rules must be mutually agreed upon and that requires confidence that they will be enforced. People at all levels of politics and government, here and in the EU, are wondering: how can the UK expect people to come to terms with it if it casually discards the parts it doesn’t like?
In this point of view, then, which holds that the British government is not, in reality, a dishonest actor on the international stage, simply threatens to act like one, the British actions of the last days are a “noise of sabers” and should be understood as such. Expect much more of this in the coming weeks, says this view; expect many more rumors about how the UK is poised for a no-deal and how the UK will stand firm, whatever the cost; and then hope to make a deal, in the end.
After all, this is what Theresa May did, twice. Then Boris Johnson did it last year. As for yesterday’s statements in the House of Commons, well, if you’re going to rattle your saber, there’s no point in giving it a minor jingle; you can also make a little noise with it. You can even take it out and shake it a bit. But ultimately the Irish view is that the saber will be put away and that the British will accept that the jaw is better than war.
And senior Irish officials had been privately warning their political masters earlier this week of the likelihood of British maneuvers of this kind, as the talks head to their decisive stage.
But progress in the talks has been minimal; the two sides are separated by an abyss. The mad scramble for a deal as the clock ticks towards the deadline has been a feature of the Brexit process since it began. The Irish side hopes that this pattern will repeat itself. But there is no doubt that the view is now somewhat more nervous.
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