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Public health officials have advised the government to institute a full Level 5 lockdown for six weeks starting on St. Stephen’s Day, which would entail the closure of non-essential retail stores.
Government sources confirmed that the recommendation had been made in a letter sent by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) after their meeting on Wednesday, but indicated that a decision would not be made immediately.
According to the Level 5 plans published by the Government, such a measure would rule out visits to private homes or gardens as of Saturday, however, this was to be the case a week later, on January 1.
The government made the decision Tuesday morning to keep non-essential retail open after Christmas, although the hospitality sector will close at 3pm tomorrow.
It comes as preliminary data showed the presence of the new variant of the UK coronavirus in the state, said Dr Cillian De Gascun of the National Virus Reference Laboratory.
News about the virus strain, which is believed to be much more infectious in the state, came as Nphet reported 938 more cases and 13 more deaths.
Professor de Gascun said in an Nphet briefing that tracking samples taken last weekend suggested that the variant may be present in around 10 percent of the swabs tested, but that this needed further validation through of whole genome sequencing.
“Those results are likely to reflect the presence of the UK variant,” he said.
However, senior members of Nphet said late Wednesday that they did not believe the UK variant was substantially driving the infection here.
Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan said that since the restrictions were changed in early December, “the level of social contact that has occurred, particularly around hospitality, has led to a very significant increase in transmission of this infection “.
Despite the presence of the UK variant, he said: “We don’t think it was a major part of the broadcast in this country, we’ve seen a significant amount of social participation that can explain this degree of really worrying numbers.”
“We do not believe at this time that we have evidence that widespread transmission is occurring with this new variant at this time,” he said.
Dr de Gascun said the results suggested that the variant is likely concentrated in the east of the country and agreed that it is unlikely to be the main factor in the increase in cases.
“At the moment, it probably wouldn’t explain by itself the significant increase in the number of cases that we found,” he said. He estimated that the UK variant had been in the country since the second week of December at least, and may have been introduced at the end of November. He said he would be surprised if it were the main driver of infection in the state. In the UK experience, the prevalence of the variant in Ireland “may be increasing”.
“All the indicators of the disease are increasing and increasing rapidly. Our level of concern continues to rise. We must do everything possible, individually and collectively, to change the course of this disease, ”said the medical director.
Socialization
Dr. Holohan said that “all forms of discretionary socialization really have to stop if we are to have the opportunity to suppress this kind of level of transmission.” He said there was a “clear temporal association” between the opening of hospitality and a very significant increase in the spread of the disease.
Professor Nolan said that the relaxation on December 1 caused an increase in cases, but the relaxation of restrictions on hospitality “coincides with a very rapid acceleration in the level of disease.”
When asked why the data does not reflect outbreaks in hospitality settings, Dr. Ronan Glynn, deputy chief medical officer, said that out of 7,000 cases in the past fortnight, the source of infection was unknown in 3,000 cases. At the briefing, it was heard that transmission cases that occurred in hospitality settings are likely sometimes recorded as managed in family homes, due to how contact tracing is done.
938 new cases and 13 more deaths were reported. Of these 300 are in Dublin, 110 in Cork, 72 in Limerick, 68 in Donegal, 41 in Kildare and the remaining 347 cases are spread over 21 other counties.
School reopening
When asked about the reopening of the schools in January, Dr. Holohan said that “we are not raising any issues in this regard at this time.” However, citing the prior shutdown of medical care and the impact on nursing homes, he warned that high levels of community transmission “pose a risk to all things that happen in society.”
“It is very difficult to ensure and protect and prevent infection from entering all sectors of society and the economy,” he said.
“Now we have a level of disease in the population that is simply not under control, we have to restore control of this infection, reduce the levels if we are going to continue to ensure that we can maintain these essential public services. “
The model presented at the briefing showed a rapidly deteriorating situation as the country prepares for Christmas, and the average number of cases has doubled in a week to 713 per day. The third wave, said Professor Philip Nolan, of the Nphet president’s epidemiological advisory group, is rising as rapidly as the first in March, and is present in all age cohorts. “Very worrying, we have seen an increase in the number of people hospitalized,” he said.
Meanwhile, the level of positive tests that are returned continues to rise with 20,000 tests conducted Tuesday with a positivity of 5.2 percent. He noted that during the second wave, it took 17 days to go from 300 cases a day to 800 on average, which had occurred in just eight days since December 15. However, this is higher among samples taken from the community, with around six percent of the tests positive. He said that in some GP practices that are part of the state sentinel network, established to monitor the spread of the disease, the positivity rate was as high as 10 percent.
“This very significant increase in cases, the exponential increase in cases that we have been seeing during this very short period of time, is accelerating very rapidly.” He said the growth rate in Dublin may be higher than in the rest of the country, and that the incidence of the disease has doubled, or more, in groups 65 and older, he said.
Hospital cases
There is an increase in the number of people in the hospital “very early,” said Professor Nolan, compared to the most recent wave. “This time, the disease is spreading evenly across the population, and that means hospitalizations are happening earlier,” he said.
“The disease has increased rapidly and in all parts of the population,” he said. “It looks more like the pattern of the first wave in March.” The current estimate of the R number, which measures how quickly the disease spreads, is between 1.5 and 1.8.
While this is likely to decline, Prof Nolan said that even if it drops to about 1.0, “we will sadly be seeing around 1,000 cases consistently well into the New Year.” If it is at 1.2 it will probably be around 2,000 cases during February. The virus grows at a rate of seven to nine percent per day. Aside from spikes that led to localized closures in Kildare, Laois and Offaly over the summer, he said this was the highest growth rate reported since March.
Similarly, the R number hasn’t been this high since April, he said, while the number of close contacts per confirmed case is also growing across all age groups.
With an R of 1.4, he said there would be an average of 1,100 cases per day by January 4 and 1,600 cases by January 18. If it can be reduced to 1.1, the number of daily cases on those dates will be 1,000 and 1,200, respectively, he said.
However, he said he does not anticipate current measures to be successful in reducing the R number below 1, suggesting that stricter measures will be needed to stifle growth. “I’m not sure they do,” he said. “Given the nature of the measures and our experience to date, I am not sure they are sufficient on their own, especially considering the starting point.”
“We have a collective problem here, we are being very affected by a virus of rapid escalation and rapid transmission,” he said.
“We expect to see a very significant number of cases and, unfortunately, hospitalizations in the coming weeks and, as a consequence, a very significant strain on our health services is anticipated.”
“We need to stay home if possible, we need to review our Christmas plans,” he said.
HSE Warning
Previously, the head of the Health Services Executive (HSE) warned that the country is facing “very serious and dangerous” levels of spread of Covid-19, which threatens to have a “great impact” on the hospital system.
Paul Reid, HSE executive director, said health officials were now as concerned as they had been at the start of the pandemic in March.
HSE Clinical Director Dr. Colm Henry said that the past few days had seen “an extraordinary growth in infection beyond what our extreme versions of models would have predicted.”
“We are deteriorating at a faster rate, in seven days, than any other country in Europe,” he said. The speed at which the virus spreads has reached a “frightening level,” he said.
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