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Behind the scenes, the old tug of war between public health experts and politicians is back.
As the government faces crucial decisions on Covid-19 in the coming days, the National Public Health Emergency Team openly urges caution and warns of the consequences of not following its advice.
“We really need to follow our public health officials in this area, they are the experts,” Dr. Mary Favier, general practitioner and team member, told RTÉ on Monday.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ronan Glynn stepped up warnings that night, saying the coronavirus situation could be deteriorating.
Ministers and officials already know the playbook, and the team’s comments were not unexpected.
“I can smell Tony Holohan [chief medical officer] waiting for a fight, “said a source.
On December 1, the state’s second lockdown must end, and for many, the holiday season will begin. Before that happens, probably at the end of next week, the government is expected to lay out how it wants to handle much of Ireland’s reopening and also the Christmas period. In particular, it will have to explain how it intends to avoid another lockdown in January.
Politicians tend to favor easing of restrictions as much as possible; while the team is much more cautious. The differences between the two groups have been well pointed out.
Many in the government believe that Holohan sent them into the current lockdown when the “Level 3 plus” restrictions were working. That said, the sharp drop in cases in recent weeks (although they have risen in recent days) has not persuaded anyone to propose an early exit.
For their part, the people on the team believe that if they had not been pressuring the government for more severe restrictions, there would have been many more cases, hospital admissions and deaths.
In fact, there has been what one person involved in the process calls a “high degree of alignment” between the team and the government during preliminary discussions. The problem is that as decision points draw closer and problems crystallize, the old dividing lines become apparent.
The next few days are crucial for the post-Level 5 reopening and the plan for December, as the government wants to have a resolved strategy by the middle of next week. Health Minister Stephen Donnelly and his officials will meet with the team on Thursday. There is some suspicion in the government that the team has whipped the recent surge in cases for all it is worth to strengthen the caution case.
A source close to the team’s thinking discusses this: “They’re really scared.”
This week’s embarrassing slide on the proposed, and then abandoned, takeout ban has not exactly strengthened the government’s position. There are more difficult problems ahead and answers will be needed soon.
What happens next
When and what is allowed to open? We’re going to level 3 right away, but keep pubs and restaurants closed? Is there a reopening in two phases, with a Christmas break for the ban on home visits? How to dissuade migrants from returning home?
Sources on all sides of the argument admit that the toughest political issues will be travel and pubs, both central parts of the Irish Christmas on which the team has and will continue to call for strict restrictions.
People in government rage at these interventions, insisting that what happens to bars and travel are decisions for politicians to make.
Another source, close to public health experts, recognizes the tactic of trying to fix the terms of the debate that comes with the Government.
“They are trying to line up the field,” he says.
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