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YOU HAVE undoubtedly heard about the United States Presidential Election taking place today.
However, if you are reading this on the eastern side of the Atlantic, you may not have heard much about the elections for the United States House of Representatives and Senate, which are also taking place today.
Let’s focus on the United States Senate here: 35 of the 100 seats in the House are up for grabs, and of those 35 seats, 23 belong to Republicans and 12 are Democrats.
Democrats seized control of the House of Representatives during the last U.S. midterm elections in 2018, making it difficult for President Donald Trump to pass legislation.
They did not regain control of the Senate, in which Republicans have a majority since 2014. The current split is 53-47 for Republicans.
The US Vice President is also important to the Senate: If senators split on a 50-50 vote, the vice president is called in to break that deadlock.
Democratic Senate candidate Jon Ossoff.
Source: John Bazemore
Why the Senate Matters
The power of the Senate lies in its ability to appoint Supreme Court justices and control the results of the impeachment: The Republican-controlled Senate voted 52-48 against the impeachment against Trump in February this year.
Like Seanad Éireann here, he also has the power to pass key laws on issues like health care and climate change.
He was crucial in the appointment of conservative justices to the Supreme Court tribunal during Trump’s tenure: Neil Gorsuch in 2017, Brett Kavanaugh appointed after some controversy in 2018, and this year, Amy Coney Barrett was sworn in to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg. .
During the 2014 midterm elections, then-US President Barack Obama lost a majority of the Democrats in the Senate.
The Senate can often be recalled during midterm elections as a form of mini-protest against the incumbent president. Given that Democrats are expected to retain the House, the big question is whether they will win back the Senate this time.
Georgia Republican Senate Candidate Doug Collins.
Source: John Bazemore via PA Images
What are the key states to watch out for?
Of the 35 seats available for re-election, the nonpartisan election site The Cook Political Report says 10 seats are “solidly” Democratic and nine seats are “solidly” Republican.
Six more Senate seats tilt toward Republican candidates, while three Senate seats should go to Democrats.
There are at least seven Senate seats that are a “pitch,” and all of these are currently held by Republicans. The contests are in these states:
- Georgia: David Perdue (right) and Jon Ossoff (R)
- Iowa: Joni Ernst (right) and Theresa Greenfield (R)
- Maine: Susan Collins (right) and Sara Gideon (right)
- Montana: Steve Daines (right) and Steve Bullock (R)
- North Carolina: Thom Tillis (right) and Cal Cunningham (right)
- South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (right) and Jaime Harrison (right)
- Arizona: Martha McSally (right) vs. Mark Kelly (right)
There are two ‘toss’ races in Georgia – the one not mentioned above has Three top candidates running for a position.
Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler, personally chosen by the governor to replace a senator who resigned in 2019, will face fellow Republican Doug Collins (backed by Trump) and Democrat Rev Raphael Warnock for the job.
In the other Georgian race, there is nothing between Perdue and Ossoff, with Real Clear Politics placing Perdue ahead by just 0.2%. (You might remember Perdue for the criticism she received for repeatedly mispronouncing the name of Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris.)
Perdue withdrew from a debate between the two candidates that had been scheduled for Sunday, perhaps indicating concern in his field about Ossoff’s chances.
Maine and IowaIn particular, they could be easy targets for Democrats, as states voted ‘blue’ in significant numbers in the two presidential elections prior to 2016.
Susan Collins, the incumbent Republican in Maine, may turn out to be something of a centrist: She was the only Republican senator to vote against Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination and has declined to say whether she’s voting for Trump.
Source: Twitter
Iowa and Montana they also voted Democrats in significant numbers in the 2002 and 2008 Senate elections (they voted Republicans in 2014).
But Montana hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since 1992, and the RealClearPolitics poll average puts Steve Daines (R) in the lead narrowly.
Republican rulers who have defended Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic may be particularly weakened, such as North CarolinaThom Tillis and Joni Ernst in Iowa.
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Senator Lindsay Graham gives a press conference on Capitol Hill. 2019.
Source: Carol Tumors
In South CarolinaThey haven’t voted for a Democratic president since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Democrat Jaime Harrison faces off against prominent Republican senator Lindsay Graham, but a FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator indicates that Graham is ahead.
A whopping $ 287 million has been spent in the North Carolina Senate race, with $ 241 million in Iowa and $ 214 million in South Carolina, as an indicator of where political concerns lie.
The seventh state to consider is Arizona – Once it’s a red state, it looks like it could cause serious upset to Republicans and turn blue. Kelly (D), a former NASA astronaut, will face McSally (R), a former Air Force colonel.
(Donald Trump only allowed McSally one minute of time to speak at an in-state election rally: “You have a minute! One minute, Martha!”)
All the polls in recent days show Kelly ahead of McSally, but his lead has narrowed in recent weeks. If he wins, both Arizona senators will be Democrats for the first time since the 1950s.
Washington Post pollster Henry Olsen predicts Democrats will win the Senate majority with 50 seats to do so, while Politico says Democrats are “the favorites to turn the Senate around.”
All that means is that it’s going to be very close.
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