Stern line in NPHET letter to government ‘predicting’ future of Ireland’s Covid-19

Dublin is a “disease reservoir” for Covid-19 that threatens the entire country, says Dr. Ronan Glynn, acting chief medical officer.

He suggested that if no changes were made, cases could increase in the capital up to 300 a day by the end of September.

NPHET’s letter to the government says that other countries have shown that large increases in Covid-19 cases lead to increased hospitalizations and deaths.

In his advice to the government last week, he added that Covid-19 infections in Dublin have the “potential to spread widely and rapidly both within Dublin and to other areas of the country.”

He did not suggest that Dublin should move to level three restrictions.

The letter, which was shown to ministers on Tuesday, adds that there is a very real potential that things could get worse.

In a stern section of the letter that focuses on the situation in Dublin, it says: “NPHET strongly cautioned that this approach is not without risk and there is no guarantee that no further action will be needed in the next few days or weeks and that the situation will be closely monitored.

“He also noted that the experience in other countries is that the increase in hospitalizations and deaths has followed an increase in cases in the following weeks, which means that there is a limited period to act.”

“While the recommended improved measures have the potential to halt the trajectory of the disease, there is also the very real potential for the situation to deteriorate further.”

The letter also suggests that wet pubs should remain closed, and sports crowds should be capped at 100, until “at least two weeks of stabilization in the disease course.”

No additional measures required in Limerick or Kildare.

Most of the cases in Dublin were concentrated in young people.

This means that hospitalization rates are low and deaths have stabilized at this time.

Dr. Ronan Glynn, Acting Medical Director, has said it is regrettable that the government’s Living with Covid plan is being “released at a time when the trajectory of the virus is changing in this country.”

He added that “the biggest threat to our screening services, to people’s mental health and well-being, to our mental health services and access to our hospital services, is that Covid is getting out of control.”

Dublin could face a further slide into a form of ‘local lockdown’ in a few days as coronavirus cases continue to rise.

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said there is “a very real and strong possibility” that more restrictions will come into effect in the capital.

The new public health measures for Dublin went into effect at midnight, however the Finance Minister said the guidance could change again by the end of the week.

The capital, like the rest of the country, is currently at level two of the new ‘Living with Covid’ roadmap.

But when asked if Dublin could move to level three in the next few days, Donohoe told RTE Morning Ireland: “There is a great possibility that that will happen.

“Our medical and public health experts will provide guidance to the government on this issue, which will then be considered by the government, it will be consistent with the framework we published and then we will make a recommendation and a decision on the matter to the people of Dublin.

“I think it’s fair to say that there is a very real chance that the guidance could change even more for Dublin, but the reason we have released this additional guidance for Dublin, in addition to the level two guidance, is to see what can be done. do to continue to keep those who live and work in Dublin as safe as possible. “

He also said that he would advise people not to travel outside of Dublin to attend a wedding.

“The reason I would do that is that I absolutely understand how important and life changing and how important a good wedding and a good wedding day is, I absolutely appreciate it,” she continued.

“But a wedding ceremony is meant to share the hope for a better future, bring the family together to celebrate a wonderful day, and I ask everyone to consider how we would feel about a wedding if we found out later in several days or weeks, the wedding became a place where disease spread. “

Meanwhile, yesterday Tanaiste Leo Varadkar made a special appeal to the people of Dublin, saying that they must follow the “Four Ws” to limit the spread of Covid-19.

Any additional restrictions will be evaluated based on a number of factors, including the number of confirmed coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents during the past 14 days.

By this key measure, the capital is by far the worst affected area in the country.

The latest statistics from the Health Protection Surveillance Center show that Dublin has an incidence of 95.1.

The next highest county is Louth, with 66.7, followed by Leitrim with 65.5.

Limerick at 63.1 and Kildare at 61.6 are also areas of some concern.