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The Government’s plan to move to Level 5 restrictions marks another journey into the unknown with Covid-19.
By moving directly from Level 3 to Level 5, Ministers are breaking their own promise of gradual, one-level changes in restrictions.
At least now, unlike when the National Public Health Emergency Team sought Level 5 two weeks ago, some notice is being provided, the budget is in place, and the supports are there to cushion the blow.
However, the measure will cause massive economic, social and mental health damage without offering a long-term solution.
It also goes against at least some evidence related to virus trends. The worsening situation certainly required action, but possibly not a near blockade.
The obsession with case numbers hides more important trends in mortality and intensive care. The relentless focus on Covid-19 may lead some to forget that every winter sees an increase in hospital activity.
During the last week, the number of ICU patients with Covid-19 has increased marginally, from 31 to 34. Deaths, which lag behind other indicators, have remained at a low level, at least until Tuesday, when 13 were registered.
Additional damage
According to the Health Service Executive, there are more than 352 free hospital beds and almost 30 free critical care beds today, before the increased capacity is considered. The system is “coping but under pressure,” its boss, Paul Reid, said a few days ago.
The five-day average of cases dropped slightly on Monday, for the first time in weeks.
Would a move to Level 4 have minimized additional damage and kept excess pressure off the health service while rounding the curve and reducing infections? We’ll never know now, but it wouldn’t matter much if the six-week Level 5 lockdown offered a lasting solution.
The problem is that it is not. At the beginning of December, when the period ends, there are no prospects that we will reach Nirvana without Covid; even in the best of cases, we are likely to continue to have hundreds of cases daily.
As a country, we will be at a fork in the road. Either we continue the lockdown until and possibly through Christmas or we ease the restrictions. If the latter happens, the pre-Christmas shopping season is saved, but another lockdown in the new year is inevitable.
And so on, with each successive closure that destroys the fabric of our society and the morale of its citizens.
Expected vaccine
Although it hasn’t been said, this is effectively the policy until a vaccine arrives. More will be invested in testing and tracking, but if this had been done earlier, we may not be where we are now. Despite refusals from ministers and health chiefs, the summer, when cases fell to low levels, was in vain.
First, we were unable to detect immediate relaxation in people’s behaviors as restrictions were eased. We were unable to detect outbreaks in meat plants until it was too late and reduced testing when increased testing was necessary.
Level 5 is another blunt instrument that applies evenly to decent people who have faithfully followed the rules in exactly the same way as those who don’t care or disagree.
Certainly non-compliance is a bigger problem compared to the economic and social behaviors of the people who comply. Wouldn’t curfews, or controls on the sale of alcohol, have been more effective in addressing this breach?
Dealing with Covid-19 is not easy. Ireland is certainly not alone in the challenges. But it would be nice to know, before we embark on six weeks of trouble, that we have a prize in sight. Sadly, aside from repeated bouts of restrictions, we clearly don’t.
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