Potentially “years” before the virus is under control, experts say

It could be four to five years before the Covid-19 pandemic is under control, a senior global health official said.

Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist at the World Health Organization (WHO), said at the FT Global Board digital conference: “I would say that within four to five years, we could be looking to control this.”

Influential factors include whether the virus matures, the containment measures in place and the development of a vaccine, he said at the conference.

She said a vaccine “seems like the best way out for now,” but there were “many buts” about its efficacy and safety, as well as its fair production and distribution, the newspaper reported.

When asked about the comments during the WHO quarterly meeting from Geneva, Dr. Mike Ryan, who heads the organization’s health emergencies program, said that no one could predict when the disease would go away.

But he also issued a warning about easing the blockade measures without the appropriate surveillance measures in place, adding: “We should not wait to see if the opening of the blockades has worked by counting the bodies in the morgue.”

He said: “We have a new virus that is entering the human population for the first time, and therefore it is very difficult to predict when we will prevail over it.

“What is clear, and I think perhaps what Soumya could have been referring to, is that the current number of people in our population who have been infected is actually relatively low.

“And if you are a scientist, and project forward in the absence of a vaccine, and try to calculate” how long will it take for enough people to become infected for this disease to become an endemic trace “?

“And it is important to put this on the table: this virus can become another endemic virus in our communities. And this virus may never go away.

“HIV has not disappeared, we have come to terms with the virus and we have found therapies and we have found prevention methods, and people are not feeling as scared as before and we are offering a long and healthy life to people with HIV “

He continued, “I don’t think anyone can predict when or if this disease will go away.

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“We have great hope: If we find a highly effective vaccine that we can distribute to everyone in need around the world, we may have an opportunity to eliminate this virus.

“But that vaccine will have to be highly effective, it must be available to everyone, and we will have to use it.”

But citing unvaccinated populations for diseases like measles, he continued: “Forgive me if I am cynical. But we do have some perfectly effective vaccines on this planet that we have not used effectively for diseases that we could eliminate and eradicate and that we have not done.

“We have lacked the will, we have lacked the determination to invest in health systems to achieve this.

“And therefore science can come up with the vaccine: someone is going to make it and we have to produce it enough so that everyone can get a dose and we can deliver it.”

“And people have to want to take that vaccine. Each of those steps is full of challenges. “

But he added: “It is a great opportunity for the world.

“The idea that a new disease could emerge, cause a pandemic, and we could, with a massive shot to the moon, find a vaccine and give it to all who need it and stop this disease on its way, perhaps what has It has been a tragic pandemic, a beacon of hope for the future of our planet and the way we care for our citizens. “

Let’s not go back to a situation where we don’t know what’s going on until our hospitals overflow.

Meanwhile, in countries that reopened after the blockades, Dr. Ryan warned that surveillance systems must be in place or it could be “days or weeks” before authorities know the virus is “speeding up” again .

“If the transmission of that virus speeds up and you don’t have the systems to detect it, it will be days or weeks before you know that something went wrong.

“And by the time that happens, you will return to a situation where your only answer is another block.

“And I think this is what we all fear: a vicious cycle of public health disaster, followed by economic disaster, followed by public health disaster, followed by economic disaster.”

He continued: “If the health system has time to recover, then it may face another increase in cases, and the health system can probably do it multiple times. I’m not sure how many times the economic system can do that. “

Dr. Ryan added: “We shouldn’t wait to see if opening closures has worked by counting cases in the ICU (intensive care units), or counting the bodies in the morgue, that’s not the way to know that something went wrong .

“The way to know that the disease is coming back is to have community-based surveillance, run tests and know that the problem is coming back, and then be able to adjust your public health measures accordingly.

“Let’s not go back to a situation where we don’t know what happens until our hospitals overflow.” That’s not a good way to do business. “