Picks for horse racing, soccer, tennis and UFC

CAREERS

Matt brocklebank

Saturday’s Pertemps St Leger Stakes has drawn a decent field numerically, but it doesn’t look like the classiest edition of the race and the most comprehensive. SUBJECTIVIST is the one that should be.

Mark Johnston’s horse has taken his form to new levels since increasing in distance this season and qualifies as a much more reliable betting proposition.

The subjectivist was just third behind Hukum at Royal Ascot and has seen Pyledriver’s back twice as well, but has had excuses for most of his losses throughout another busy campaign and given family ties this weekend. presumably it has been in the subjective journal of the start of the season.

You’ll get a direct and prominent ride from evergreen Joe Fanning, who is looking for his first El Clásico success when he approaches 50 later this month, and he may not face too much pressure up front given that O’Brien’s outsider Mythical is usually quite slow to get away from the stables.

Soil conditions that continue to dry out throughout the week is possibly a slight inconvenience to the selection, but not many Johnston runners don’t enjoy some good terrain and all things considered, it will come as a surprise if you’re still not right. . when it matters most.

Simon Holt

In bet365’s Portland Handicap, fit trainee Ray Dawson’s reserve turns heads DANZENO that keeps running with tremendous consistency.

Slowly, one pound at a time, the handicapper is releasing his vice-like grip on the nine-year-old who failed to make the clearest runs behind Count D’Orsay at Haydock last week and who had previously chased home. the much better. Glen Shiel in Newcastle.

Effective over both five and six furlongs, this intermediate distance may prove ideal for Danzeno, and his rider’s 5-pound allowance, which was seen to advantage on board Ataser, Documenting, and Tranchee in recent days, could help. to ensure a well deserved victory.

FOOTBALL

Tom carnduff

Fulham The Expected Goals Conceded metric had them conceding nearly 12 more than last season; 59.8 gives them the 10th best defensive record in the Championship, as opposed to fourth in actual goals against, and that’s a concern against a team that is getting stronger in attack.

Goals scored weren’t a problem and his xG figure is in line with his position in the table, but his team’s defensive side remains a concern and the arrival of a back-up left-back isn’t necessarily enough to address that in this one. moment.

Arsenal have their own defensive problems with David Luiz struggling to keep fit, while Shkodran Mustafi, Pablo Mari and Calum Chambers are recovering from their own injuries. It appears to be a contest in which the price of the odds that both teams score must be hit.

The visitors finished sixth in last season’s ‘over 3.5 goals in games standings’ and that trend should continue as they balance some baseline issues in the early stages of the new campaign.

New players may be welcome for Newcastle, but they should have been more in a relegation fight last season. The Infogol xGD model had them as the second largest negative difference behind Norwich. His actual GD should have been -29.6 but there was some luck involved on the defensive side of things.

Defense still seems like an area of ​​concern for Steve Bruce, even with Lewis coming in as left back and it will be a battle for them to avoid being the worst xG side once again this season. West Ham are in trouble, but they can at least fill in some cracks by welcoming Newcastle to London Stadium.

It doesn’t seem likely that it will be a high-scoring contest, but the money may be right in saying that West Ham will top what could be a forgettable affair.

Hammers are odd tones with 6/5 being the best available price on victory. However, backing a home win with less than 3.5 goals in the match provides a much more attractive 15/8 with Sky Bet, which is where the best bet can be found.

UFC

Kieran cobley

Andrea Lee takes on the female MMA trailblazer ROXANNE MODAFFARI in a rematch at UFC Vegas 10 and it’s one that the latter can win by decision.

These two first fought in 2014 where Modafferi pulled off a split decision victory, and this is how I see this fight will end as well.

Lee has seen eight of his 15 fights go to the end, with six decisions in his last seven. The last time Lee was in a fight that ended early was also in 2017, where he featured Jamie Thornton in his last fight before joining the UFC.

In the other corner you have Modafferi, a veteran fighter with 41 fights to her record, 28 of which have come the distance.

The happy warrior She could be one of the most infuriating female fighters to watch, with her game plan simply bringing the fight to the table, before controlling her opponent during the round while cutting with a few shots, but it never seems like a threat to finish. While this style infuriates the viewer, it is effective and has scored 15 wins by decision.

I hope Modafferi uses that game plan again, knocking Lee down at the beginning of each round before making a few shots and holding position, with this strategy allowing him to win on the judges’ scorecards.

Will dean

QUICK MATT has proven to be a staple of the UFC’s lower weight divisions, having amassed a 4-3 record with the organization. Fight at a fast pace, throwing a large number of punches as you seek to finish the fight. Schnell is also a dangerous submission threat, with eight wins via tap out.

Standing in front of him in the cage on Saturday night is Tyson Nam, an appropriately named and powerful forward who has won 11 of his 19 victories by knockout. Fighting at 125 pounds at 36, he is at a speed disadvantage to most of his rivals. This was evident in his first two UFC fights, where he was decisively outscored by both opponents.

That said, it is widely believed that power is the last thing a fighter will surrender to in the face of age, so Nam is certainly still dangerous. He proved it in his last fight, winning by knockout in 32 seconds.

With everything we know about these two competitors, this seems easier to break than most. Schnell will dictate the pace of the fight and where it takes place, resulting in a fairly comfortable victory if he avoids Nam’s thunderous right hand.

While I am aware that a knockout of the Hawaiian is possible, I don’t think Schnell should be the underdog at all. Nam has lost every full round of competition he has fought in in the UFC (six in total) and he only seems to have one path to victory in this fight.

On the other hand, Schnell possesses an opportunistic submission threat and will likely be the winner on the judges’ scorecards if neither of them can find an ending. For my money, it is the value bet of the preliminaries.

TENNIS

Andy Schooler

• The selection appears here on Saturday morning

Analysis to follow …

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