NPHET’s Philip Nolan explains when Ireland should see signs if Level Five lockdown is working

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Professor Philip Nolan has said that we should see signs if Level Five is working in about three weeks.

The NPHET member urged people not to get bogged down with daily case numbers for the next two weeks, noting that they will fluctuate over a period of time.

He also said that until a vaccine is found, everyone will have to socialize in different ways that we are used to.

(From left to right) Deputy Medical Officer Department of Health Ronan Glynn Professor Philip Nolan, Chairman of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group Medical Director, Department of Health Tony Holohan

When asked about when we might see signs that the new restrictions, which start at midnight, are having a positive effect, he said: “It depends a lot on how people have behaved in the last week or the last 10 days.

“People realize there is a problem, people will have pulled out. If that happens, we may see cases peak sooner, in a week.

“On the other hand, if people have been mixing normally or even speeding up their mixing in anticipation of these restrictions, it could be two weeks before cases peak, perhaps several hundred more than we are seeing now, and then start to decrease …

“I think we have to continue with this, again to remember where we were in April and May, we were very careful as a population … we have to go back there.

“We should see signs in three weeks.”

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When asked when we can see a change in the number of deaths, he told RTE’s Morning Ireland: “Sadly, deaths take longer, typically nine to 14 days between a case notification and someone’s death. , and it could be longer.It can be up to a month.

“We saw several deaths reported yesterday that we didn’t see for a long time and we may see those kinds of numbers popping up again for the next two weeks. That’s one of the drivers of these restrictions.”



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