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Ireland could revert to lockdown for three weeks if cases rise to more than 400 a day over Christmas.
The National Public Health Emergency Team warned the government that a “major increase” in socialization could lead to 450 cases of infection being diagnosed per day before the end of the month.
Taoiseach Micháel Martin has said that he does not foresee any further restrictions before the holiday period, adding that this guideline threshold figure was “very arbitrary”.
In a letter to the government last week, NPHET claimed that it would be possible to suppress the spread of the virus with a 21-day intervention, but only if it starts with case numbers close to 400 per day.
(Image: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin)
The Taoiseach said the government was not only looking at the figures on new cases, but also the level of hospital admissions, admissions to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and the number of deaths when considering what restrictions to impose.
He noted that the state was doing the best in the EU on an average of seven days of new cases.
The Taoiseach said: “We want to stay in that position, so we won’t take long to react, but we don’t anticipate having to do it before Christmas.”
The current five-day R or replay number is currently 295.
NPHET warned Health Minister Stephen Donnelly that a notable increase in socialization and diversity of contacts during the holiday period could “lead to much higher levels of viral transmission than have been seen to date.”
The emergency kit model shows that if the R number, which estimates how fast the disease is spreading through the population, increases to 2.0 from December 22 to January 6, it could be seen between 300 and 450 cases per day for New Years Day and 800 to 1200 per day for the second week of January.
They also warn of the impact of a higher number of cases in reducing the spread of the virus due to “resource constraints.”
The letter adds that there will be a serial testing program for healthcare workers in acute settings to be implemented in early January, similar to those established for nursing homes and meat factories.
On December 1, the country went from a Level 5 lockdown to Level 3 restrictions as other non-essential retail and public amenities were reinstated.
Home visits remain restricted until December 18.
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