Nphet member warns that Covid cases could reach 1,200 per day by mid-January

Ireland could see up to 1,200 cases per day of Covid-19 after Christmas if public health measures are not followed, warned Professor Philip Nolan.

The HSE is poised for a significant increase in the virus’s reproductive rate unless people keep discretionary gatherings to a minimum after the country pulled out of Level 5 restrictions this week.

Public health experts said the level of infection was “static” but with a persistently high incidence in older people.

Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan said the renewed closure would produce a minimum of about 250 cases per day.

As of 2:00 p.m. today, 239 patients with COVID-19 are hospitalized, of which 32 are in the ICU. 10 additional hospitalizations in the last 24 hours.

– Department of Health (@roinnslainte) December 3, 2020

“That underscores the importance of each of us recognizing the potentially fragile situation we find ourselves in, but that will not inevitably lead to some of the possible R-number increases that we have modeled.”

He warned that if large numbers of people over the next three weeks adopted “discretionary” socialization, such as going to restaurants, it could leave the health system in a “precarious” situation.

“If people can limit the degree to which they have discretionary social engagements and avoid them, particularly in the weeks leading up to Christmas, we have the ability to maintain some control in terms of transmission levels and we will not find ourselves as a country experiencing rapid growth of infection “.

He said he did not want to have to recommend any more restrictions in the future.

Professor Nolan said the reproduction rate of the coronavirus was 0.8 to 1 today.

He said: “The more contacts, the greater the number of R, the greater the number of cases we will see in January.”

Professor Nolan said that small increases in the R number to 1.6 could produce between 800 and 1,200 cases a day.

Dr. Holohan said: “It is not inevitable. It is still within our reach as a country to take the kinds of measures that can help protect us against that reality. “

He said that the modeling was not alarming and that they were not predictions.

“These are plausible. We are not applying an R number of four to the numbers, we are applying very small differences. “