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AFTER A LONG night of counting, the outcome of the US presidential election is still very much up in the air with no clear winner projected.
Democrats’ hopes of a landslide victory for Joe Biden will not materialize, and Donald Trump has already threatened to go to the Supreme Court after stating without proof that the election is a fraud.
Now it is approaching the most crucial part of the count, with some of the most changing states set to announce voting results in key areas in the next few hours.
As it stands, Biden leads Trump by 238 electoral college votes to 213, with 270 the magic number required to take over the White House.
Seven states – Alaska, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wiconsin – are waiting to be called.
No one can say for sure what will happen next, particularly with a large number of votes to be counted, but as the decisive moment approaches, there are a couple of clear paths to victory for both candidates.
Here’s what to watch out for for the next few hours (and days).
Wisconsin and Michigan
Democrats hoped Joe Biden could score a crucial victory in Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida, but those gains never materialized.
At the time of this writing, the only significant change for Trump’s rival has been Arizona, which gave Biden a projected gain of 11 Electoral College votes (though the state has yet to be officially called up for him).
But while that number is not as large as the 38 and 29 votes that Texas and Florida would have cast, respectively, his apparent change from the western state has given Biden a huge advantage and a potential path to victory.
A victory there and in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin (10 votes) and Michigan (16 votes) would bring Biden agonizingly close to a victory, putting him at 264 Electoral College votes.
But if Trump takes Wisconsin and Michigan, he would give the president one vote ahead of his rival at 239 Electoral College votes (assuming Biden wins Arizona as expected).
Both states seemed out of reach for Biden before, but voting patterns have favored him in recent hours.
In Wisconsin, Trump had a 109,000 vote lead until the recount came in for Democratic-leaning Milwaukee County and Biden took the lead in the state.
Pending votes in Brown County and Kenosha County have yet to be counted, and a large number of mail ballots still have to be counted in each.
Meanwhile, the gap is also narrowing in Michigan, where Trump won by just 10,000 votes in 2016.
Detroit’s Wayne County, the largest county in the state with 18% of the voting population, has a large share of the mail-in votes to be counted, which is expected to be heavily Democratic.
The Democratic areas of Oakland County, Ingham County and Kalamazoo County are also outstanding, and more postal ballots are expected, but Macomb County, a Republican stronghold, also remains to be counted.
However, while critical to the race, current trends come with an important health caveat: They saw significant numbers of people voting by mail, and because they are counting those votes at the end, it’s unpredictable how they will go.
Southern states (also, Alsaska)
Despite being behind by 25 Electoral College votes at the time of this writing, Trump is expected to close the gap when results are called from some of the remaining states.
A likely victory in Alaska, which still has about half of its votes to count, will add three votes to its total.
But it is the two Republican strongholds targeted by Democrats in the south, Georgia (16 electoral college votes) and North Carolina (15 votes), that could play a significant role in the president’s return to the White House.
Results from each state are expected to arrive in the next two hours, and Trump currently leads in both.
If the president wins in both states, he would give him an additional 31 Electoral College votes. Along with his three expected votes in Alaska, it would lead Trump to 23 votes from victory, with Pennsylvania and Nevada still up in the air.
Conversely, if Biden causes an upset and takes over either state, it could hurt the president’s chances.
Trump still has a dominant advantage in Georgia, where about 95% of the vote has so far been counted, and before it seemed definite that the state would vote for the president.
The problem is that a large chunk of the pending votes come from Democratic areas in cities like Atlanta and Savannah, although it still seems like an outside bet that the state will vote for Biden.
Things seem safer for the president in North Carolina, where Trump leads by a smaller margin but where there is less chance of Democratic gains.
Nevada
The counts give and the counts take away. Despite his predicted victory in Arizona, the West has not been entirely kind to Biden.
Analyzes predicted Democrats would win in Nevada, which has six electoral college votes, overnight, but in the last hour or two, Trump’s gap has closed in a state that hasn’t voted Republican since 2004.
Biden maintains his lead, but by a margin of 8,000 with 86% of the votes counted in the state.
Silver State has stopped voting and has counted all in-person votes and mailed ballots through November 2.
Vote-by-mail ballots received yesterday and those not yet received next week still needs to be counted – that the count will resume tomorrow at 9 a.m. M. (Tomorrow at 5 PM, Irish Time).
A Trump victory it would be important for what it would do to Biden’s hopes as much as hers.
No news is bad news
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Although he has a small number of votes in the Electoral College, a Democratic victory in Nevada it would mean the race would be narrowed down to Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, with two giving Biden a probable victory, or at least the possibility of a 269-269 draw.
In contrast, Trump would need four of those five states if Biden wins in Nevada and, as we’ve seen, things are shaky for the president in Michigan, Wisconsin and, to a lesser extent, Georgia.
Pennsylvania
After all the predictions and counting overnight, everything can reach the final state.
Another Rust Belt state targeted by Democrats, Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes could change the outcome one way or another. for when it is counted in a few days.
Whether it matters depends on which of the states mentioned above is chosen by Trump or Biden at the time the postal ballots are counted. which will continue to happen until Friday.
The state currently has a 75% tally and Trump currently leads at 55.1% to Biden’s 43.6%, but today’s Secretary of State data shows the Democrat has won an overwhelming margin of votes. absent in the state so far.
The New York Times reports that if Biden wins the remaining postal votes by a margin similar to what he has done so far, the state will win, and most likely the White House.
With report by Gráinne Ní Aodha.
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