Northern Ireland would face thousands of deaths without new lockdown measures, says chief scientist



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NORTHERN IRELAND would have seen thousands of deaths from Covid-19 if steps had not been taken to suppress the virus, said Stormont’s chief scientific adviser.

The harsh evaluation of Professor Ian Young came after the Executive Delegate in Belfast agreed to a new radical blockade, which will take effect on St. Stephen’s Day and will last six weeks.

The first week of those measures will see the toughest lockdown yet introduced during the pandemic, with a form of curfew in place starting at 8 p.m. with stores closed thereafter and all indoor and outdoor gatherings prohibited. until 6 am.

Non-essential retail will close for the six weeks, as will contact services closed. Hotel establishments will be limited to take away food services.

Organized sport will also be banned, with elite sport included in the ban for the first week.

Professor Young said the region’s health service, which was already overloaded, would have been completely flooded in January if no action was taken.

“Of all the things we look at in terms of modeling, the number of deaths is the hardest to predict. If no measures were taken, which is inconceivable, it would have been very large, certainly thousands, if no measures were taken, ”he said.

Professor Young told BBC Radio Ulster that the current number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients of between 400 and 500 would have skyrocketed to between 3,000 and 4,000 at the end of January if no action had been taken.

“In terms of the total number of general and acute beds, the type of beds that would have been required in the hospital, the number of patients needing beds would have exceeded the total number of beds available,” he added.

Schools

After last night’s closure announcement, Stormont ministers faced calls to provide clarity on reopening schools after the Christmas break.

The Executive delayed a decision on schools at yesterday’s meeting when ministers agreed to introduce the new restrictions in other sectors of society.

Instead, education and health officials have been tasked with getting involved in possible options to reduce face-to-face school time in the new period.

One option is a possible staggered return to the classroom after Christmas, with some age groups returning earlier than others.

Teachers and parents have demanded answers in order to plan for January.

Particular concerns have been raised about the possibility of elementary-age children from various schools mingling when they meet to take the tests established as part of an academic selection transfer process used by some high schools.

While the January tests are conducted by private companies, the Department of Education has the ultimate responsibility for ensuring that school environments are safe.

The president of the National Association of Teachers’ Directors in Northern Ireland, Graham Gault, criticized the Executive on Friday morning.

“Principals and teachers need clarity on what the beginning of the quarter will entail,” he tweeted.

“Schools cannot change things overnight.

“Unfortunately, lack of understanding has been the hallmark of decision-making during this pandemic, and schools are the last to know at all times.”

Professor Young said that the Executive has been provided with a “wide range of options” regarding schools.

“Schools don’t have to be open or closed, there are many things in between; the staggered opening, I think, would clearly be included as one of those possibilities, ”he said.

‘The toughest restrictions yet’

Northern Ireland’s (R) breeding number is currently between 1.1 and 1.2.

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Another 12 deaths related to Covid-19 were reported yesterday, along with another 656 new cases of the virus.

The hospital occupancy rate was 104%.

On Tuesday, queues of ambulances were witnessed at Northern Ireland’s Accident and Emergency (ED) departments as patients were being treated in car parks due to lack of capacity within hospitals.

At one point, 17 ambulances with patients lined up outside the emergency department at the Antrim Area Hospital.

Health Minister Robin Swann said today that the lockdown would lay a “solid and deep foundation” for the fight against Covid-19 in 2021.

“It is something that was necessary, they are the toughest restrictions that we have introduced so far, but, at this time of year, right where the coronavirus is, they were necessary to try to recover it as we did at the beginning of the year, so that we can get the benefit that you really get from the vaccine that we started to implement, “he told BBC Radio Ulster.

The Christmas bubble arrangements that allow three households to meet for five days during the holiday period are not affected by the new lockdown measures.

Swann defended the Executive’s decision not to implement the lockdown before Boxing Day.

He said he would have seen people trying to cut back on activities like shopping in a shorter period of time, which would have resulted in more interaction and further spread of the virus.



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