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Northern Ireland is unlikely to alter its Covid-19 strategy despite the change of gear by authorities in Dublin yesterday.
Northern Ireland has one of the highest infection rates in Europe, with a reproduction rate between 1.4 and 1.8.
The number of cases in the last two weeks per 100,000 inhabitants is more than double that in the Republic of Ireland.
But it appears that it will follow the strategy announced by the Northern Ireland Power-Sharing Executive last week, which allows the retail sector to remain open despite the opposite happening south of the border starting tomorrow night during a period of six weeks.
The two key experts from Northern Ireland are Medical Director Dr Michael McBride and Scientific Director Professor Ian Young.
They advise Northern Ireland’s Minister of Health, Robin Swann, and regularly participate in discussions with Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill and other members of the Executive, including Finance Minister Conor Murphy.
As a result of discussions between advisers and politicians, the Northern Ireland Executive Branch announced a series of initiatives last week.
The most important new restrictions included closing the hospitality sector for a four-week period and requiring all schools to close for a two-week period incorporating the scheduled one-week midterm recess.
However, the Executive decided in the deliberations to allow the stores and other points of sale to remain open.
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Members of the power-sharing administration have made a calculated bet.
They hope that by focusing on family interactions and social contacts and calling on the general public to recommit to social distancing practices that worked early, the crucial R rate and other important indicators will start to fall.
At a press conference this afternoon, both Dr McBride and Professor Young said there is encouraging new evidence from the worst hit area: Derry and Strabane.
For weeks, it came back with some of the highest infection rates in Europe.
Authorities implemented restrictions there in an effort to address the problem.
In recent days, there are signs that the measures are having an impact, including public acceptance, even though infection rates remain high.
Despite having lower infection rates than Northern Ireland, the coalition led by Micheál Martin has decided to introduce what amounts to a more severe package of restrictions.
The number of workers who will lose their jobs will be significantly higher south of the border because government-ordered closures will shut down the retail sector.
The period for increased restrictions is also longer, six weeks in the Republic of Ireland and four weeks in Northern Ireland.
Pandemic unemployment rates in the Republic of Ireland will also be higher and many of those affected will receive 350 euros per week.
Full details of what Northern Ireland workers will receive are not yet available.
It will be a combination of the two-thirds salary scheme set by the British government with the possibility of a small Stormont recharge.
The current UK scheme on offer is less than what was available during the first phase of the lockdown.
This is one of the main points of discussion between the Boris Johnson government and regional leaders such as the Mayor of the Greater Manchester area, Andy Burnham.
Authorities in Belfast say their testing rates compare favorably with statistics south of the border.
The latest figures from Northern Ireland indicate that its seven-day testing rate is 29 per 1,000 people compared to around 20 in the Republic of Ireland.
Northern Ireland’s four-week intervention will end on November 13.
By that date, there should be enough evidence to indicate whether the strategy, less severe than that applied south of the border, is working.
The most striking feature of the Northern Ireland model is the balance between health, economic and political considerations.
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