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TAOISEACH MICHEÁL MARTIN has said that if the country reaches 2,000 Covid cases per day, it would be a huge challenge for the contact tracing system.
Speaking in government buildings yesterday, he announced that Ireland will introduce new lockdown measures starting on Christmas Eve, with various restrictions in the coming days and weeks.
He said the government was acting “quickly and aggressively” to try to suppress the growing number of cases.
Yesterday, another 970 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Ireland, with 13 deaths recorded.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said that if no action is taken and cases continue to rise on the same trajectory they are on, the country could reach 2,000 cases by New Year’s Eve.
There is capacity to handle 140,000 tests per week, and the Taoiseach confirmed yesterday that there are 700 contact tracers employed.
In October, when there was a spike in cases, the contact tracing system nearly collapsed, and the HSE was forced to ask more than 2,000 people who received a positive Covid-19 test result for a week. in particular to alert their own close contacts.
The HSE said at the time that this was due to “unprecedented pressure” on Ireland’s contact tracing system during that week.
Contact trackers typically inform close contacts of infected cases of their status and help organize their analysis.
When asked if the contact tracing system could handle mounting case numbers, particularly if they hit the 2000 mark, Martin said:
That would be very challenging, that would be difficult.
The Taoiseach said that the HSE had informed him that they had increased the contact tracing workforce, confirming that there are now 700 contact trackers employed.
He added:
If you get up to 2,000, that’s reaching very significant levels that would defy contact tracing.
New restrictions
Ireland is returning to the highest level of its Covid-19 response, Level 5, with some adjustments, such as allowing stores to remain open.
The measures will initially remain in effect until January 12.
Martin said the government was making decisions on the assumption that the new British variant of Covid-19 was already in Ireland.
“We have to act as if this mutant variant is in the country; We don’t have definitive evidence, but clearly something is happening there in terms of change, scale and speed of growth, ”he said.
The Taoiseach confirmed that there is no evidence that this new variant has had an impact on hospitalizations in the UK.
Concern over the tension has led a large number of European countries, including Ireland, to suspend flights from Britain.
UK health officials have said that initial modeling and research suggests that the new variant may be 70% more infectious than other strains.
However, this week, Irish public health experts, such as the director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory, Dr Cillian De Gascun, said the strain is “a cause for concern” but that there is no evidence yet to say for sure more infectious.
“I don’t think we have seen the evidence for that interpretation at this point,” he said.
There are certainly a significant number of cases in various regions of the UK and it has become the dominant strain in the last four to five weeks, it is certainly cause for concern. There are some genetic markers that could explain why it would be more infectious and perhaps more efficient in transmission, but we have not seen strong evidence for this.
Despite this, De Gascun said that due to infection rates in the south-east of the UK it is “quite important and prudent” to operate preventively.
NPHET Modeling Group Chair Professor Philip Nolan also said this week:
It is not to say that the new variant is here or not here, there is no evidence that it is, there is no need to read these rapidly high case counts as evidence that should to be here.
“It’s clear from the level of social contact that we’re seeing that this could explain such high growth rates,” he said.
New variant
Martin acknowledged that a lot of work had to be done on the impact of the new variant, but said there has been an increase in the number of cases regardless.
“There is no question that there is a rapid increase in cases – the real reason for that – is it socialization? Or the variant of the virus, the mutant variant? Or is it a combination of both? “
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He said he spoke to UK experts yesterday morning about the new variant.
“They are sure that this variant is responsible for a higher transmission. They have more and more confidence, they have to investigate more, I admit it, “he said.
“But a lot of people think it’s inconceivable that it isn’t in Ireland given our proximity to the UK and the people who travel,” he said.
The Taoiseach said that the government has to apply a “precautionary principle”, stating:
“We have to work on the basis that it is here. I think it would be irresponsible to work on the basis that he is not here ”.
“The figures speak for themselves in terms of growth. Something different has happened in the last ten days, there is no doubt about that ”.
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