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There will be some elements of deja vu for Liverpool next weekend when their new Premier League campaign begins, at Anfield, and against the previous season’s championship winners.
The Reds, of course, kicked off the winning Premier League campaign last year at home against 2018/19 second division champion Norwich City. Jurgen Klopp’s men managed a comfortable 4-1 win in that game, but chances are high that things will be a lot tougher for Liverpool this time.
Despite finally achieving promotion last season, Marcelo Bielsa’s side has been comfortably the best in England’s second division practically since arriving in the summer of 2018.
Even as Norwich secured promotion as champion, finishing eight points better than Leeds, the Yorkshire club was ranked first based on Expected Points (xP) and topped most performance-based metrics in the division.
In that 2018/19 campaign, the Whites collapsed at the end of the season and lost to Derby in the play-offs, but the same fate was not repeated last season when they won the Championship title by eight clear points.
Fueled by their return to the Premier League and full of confidence, there is no doubt that they will be excited about the prospect of taking on the Premier League champions in their own backyard.
But despite being in the same situation as last year, how can we anticipate a different match for Liverpool against Leeds compared to the one they played against the previous championship champion Norwich?
One of the biggest differences we can probably anticipate is the level of pressure Liverpool must face with the ball. In last season’s curtain-opening act, Norwich posted an average PPDA of 16.68 against the Reds. For those who do not know, PPDA is a metric to measure the aggressiveness of a team’s pressure by counting the number of passes that a team allows before taking an action to try to recover the ball.
What the foregoing from the Norwich game indicates is that the visitors probably had some ambition at times to put pressure on the Reds, but struggled when Klopp’s team proved their dominance, locking Daniel Farke’s men deeper into their midfield.
Klopp’s team has been one of the best in Europe for the better part of two years, and as a result many teams adjust their tactical setup to try to nullify the threat posed by the Premier League champions. Opponents do this by sitting in low block formations, putting many men between Liverpool players in possession and their own goal.
This means Liverpool midfielders and deep defenders will generally be able to take possession of the ball unopposed, giving them time to lift their heads and choose their next passing option.
However, Leeds with Bielsa are famous for their aggressive pressure when out of possession, and we can probably hope that this will not change at Anfield, despite the quality Liverpool possess.
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This is because as a Championship team, they traveled to Arsenal in January in the FA Cup and chose not to adjust their high-energy tactics, achieving a PPDA record of just 5.5.
Arsenal struggled to cope with the pressure from Leeds and, although the home side managed a slight 1-0 victory, the visitors tried both more shots and more shots on target.
That game should act as a warning to Liverpool who have, unusually, been caught off guard by aggressive pressure moves at various points in recent months.
The Reds made two notable errors in possession that resulted in goals when they suffered a 2-1 loss to Arsenal at the Emirates in July, and Fabinho was caught in possession by a pressing RB Salzburg two weeks ago that led to one of his two goals. in the team’s preseason friendly 2-2 draw.
While Liverpool should have too much quality for the newly promoted team and thus start the season over with a home win, it is crucial that they do not enter the game passively and risk being impressed by the intensity. of the game. new Premier League team.
Surprisingly, it starts in seven days. Liverpool cannot be cold.
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