Level Five: NPHET Professor Philip Nolan explains how quickly the virus can be suppressed during the second crash

Ireland may have fewer than 200 Covid-19 cases per day in early December if everyone does their part during the second national shutdown.

Taoiseach Micheal Martin announced last night that the entire country would be subject to Level Five restrictions from Wednesday night.

The move comes amid a growing number of new infections across the country, with the five-day average now at a staggering 1,159.

The series of new measures announced will put tens of thousands out of work, with the closure of pubs, restaurants, cafes, hair salons, barbers and non-essential outlets.

But the Taoiseach gave some hope for the festive season, saying that we can still have a “very special” Christmas if everyone works hard between now and December 1.

This was again emphasized by NPHET professor Philip Nolan, who has said how the virus can be suppressed in the next six weeks.

He said Ireland’s Reproductive Rate (R), which is currently at around 1.4, needs to drop to 0.5 to see a drop efficiently.

Nolan said hitting a rate of 0.7-0.9 “won’t be enough” as the numbers would only drop temporarily.

In a series of tweets last night, he explained: “The move to Level 5 restrictions was a difficult decision for the Government, and it is very difficult for the people whose lives and livelihoods are most affected, but growth needed to be interrupted. Uncontrolled exponential of the pandemic.

“We can, collectively, suppress the transmission of the virus again, if we are fully in the spirit of these measures, and eliminate, over the next six weeks, close contacts other than our home, ‘bubble’, school or university, or essential elements job.

“Our model shows that for this to be successful, we need to reduce viral transmission to very low levels. A reproduction number of 0.9 or 0.7 will not be enough, we must aim for R = 0.5.

“And we have to keep R close to 0.5 for 6 weeks. If we kept R at 0.5 for 3 weeks, the cases would go down to about 400 per day, but they would go back up to about 1000 per day four weeks later. R at 0.5 for six weeks, cases remain below 200 per day until the end of December. “