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KEEP OUT OF YOUR MIND TO a world and an era long, long ago. Well, it’s not really that far. It just seems so because it predates the miserable pandemic that, through the price it has taken in terms of human suffering, economic calamity, and detrimental alterations to our way of being, has taken control of everyone’s lives. I mean January 2020.
With this being a presidential election year and with the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primaries looming, observers of American politics had only two inextricably intertwined questions on their heads. Who would become the Democratic candidate? And could that standard-bearer deny Donald Trump a second term in the White House?
Trump, the president of a mandate
Things were looking good for the most controversial president of the United States in memory, regardless of whether he has earned the disdain of a sizable chunk of the population in the land of my birth and the overwhelming majority of the people in Ireland.
One commenter summarized the reason for the push within the Trump administration:
While a large number of American and international audiences, including this author, have long criticized Trump, the fact remains that several key economic and political fundamentals are acting as ‘tailwinds’ to his re-election. economy that continues to hum in what became in July the longest period of expansion in US history, stretching back more than 120 months and counting ”
A decidedly half-hearted group of investment experts and financial advisers assembled by Barron’s magazine reluctantly agreed that Trump was likely four years older.
Furthermore, in their series of predictions for 2020, the declared left of the center Vox.com justified their forecast of a Trump win as follows:
“Trump is the headline, the economy is growing while unemployment remains very low and, despite some close calls, Trump has not started new wars or expanded existing ones in a way that will kill many American service members. Combine that with Trump’s geographic advantage over the Democratic candidate in the Electoral College, and I think you have more than even a chance of winning. “
Those who weren’t so sure or hedging their bets, theirs among them, thought that much would depend on who the Democrats chose to occupy the position.
Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren
In January, it had begun to appear that former Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and the previously unknown mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, were the top four contenders.
All attention, as usual, was on the fast-approaching “first in the nation” votes in Iowa and New Hampshire.
They all had great weaknesses. Sanders was too far left for many people and the man yesterday with a video from the 1980s defending the merits of the Soviet Union to prove it. Warren arguably obtained lucrative professorships based on an extremely dubious claim of distant Native American heritage.
Buttigieg was a completely undefined commodity, and despite social advances, a gay man who might not win the acceptance of some of the key constituencies Democrats need to win.
And Joe Biden was an old man who had run for president twice before and while he had an exemplary record of public service, he didn’t really have a compelling reason beyond eligibility to excite Democrats.
In fact, the proud Scranton, Pennsylvania native was crushed in both Iowa and New Hampshire (aside, his future relevance is appropriately under a microscope) and appeared to be finished.
Then South Carolina and African Americans had their say. They opted for Joe Biden, Major League Baseball. Possibly he accepted the nomination because James Clyburn, the powerful black Congressman from Palmetto State, endorsed him. Biden ran the table from there.
Performance in a pandemic
And Covid-19 attacked. Trump panicked. A campaign based on a booming economy and an associated mantra of “you may not like me, but you have to vote for me” was suddenly in jeopardy.
The administration tried to deny what was unfolding and played a petty policy that cost lives. Crucially, polls showed that the seniors who were responsible for Trump’s shocking victory were parting ways with him as a result.
Without a doubt, his most astute advisers urged the president to change course. He should admit that his people hadn’t handled the unprecedented crisis quite well and somehow been wrong, but claim that the Democrats were too liberal, in particular, too captive to the dangerous belly of the Black Lives Matter movement, to contemplate. Instead, the New Yorker doubled down, much to the delight of his base elements and probably no one else.
That stance of Trump, pushing back harder and hitting below the most disgusting belt, was shown in the first debate. His predecessors, such as George HW Bush, have been rightly described as oblivious to such encounters. President Trump went the other way.
Even his ardent fans must admit that the personal attacks and frank accusations he launched were an embarrassment to his office. The severe damage was self-inflicted overnight. Trump’s performance certainly hurt him with the white women in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that put him on top in 2016.
Trump was vastly better in the final clash when he successfully turned to the issue that is still political gold dust: America first. Still, Joe Biden did well in those two games. His team’s fears of having “a moment” were not met. Consequently, he won them and the result of November 3 was a foregone conclusion.
As he passed, the jubilation spread. Trump, whether he recognized it or not, was done. However, the devil was in the details. Democrats did not retake the Senate.
They lost seats in the House of Representatives. They were absolutely destroyed locally. And the truth is that, were it not for the coronavirus, Donald Trump would be preparing for another inauguration. I am convinced of it.
Joe Biden and the Democrats should prioritize and govern accordingly. Left-wing Democrats refuse to accept the above political realities and will fight to disabuse the quintessential institutionalist who defeated Trump of his centrist instincts.
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The other side will highlight every nod from President Biden in his “socialist” and “anti-American” direction. The next presidency may lack the junk drama the world has been stuck with with a mix of disbelief and horror for the past four years, but it will have its pressure points.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston attorney, professor of law at NUI Galway, and political columnist for TheJournal.ie.
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