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INITIAL REPORTS OF LAST NIGHT’S terrorist attack in Vienna suggest it was inspired by the Islamic State. Austrian prosecutors have stated that the armed attacker shot to death by police on Monday night was convicted in April 2019 of attempting to join Islamist extremists in Syria. He was released in December 2019.
Emerging reports indicate that the Vienna attack differed from last Thursday’s attack in Nice, France, in several ways. The Nice attack had the hallmarks of a classic ‘Lone Wolf’ attack inspired by the Islamic State.
Such attacks were especially frequent in European Union member states from 2015 to 2017, during the height of the so-called ‘Caliphate’ of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. During this three-year period alone, 347 EU citizens were killed by individuals and groups inspired and supported by the Islamic State.
‘Lone Wolf’ vs last night’s attack
In the case of the ‘Lone Wolf’ attacks, the perpetrators acted alone and used simple and crude methods to kill their victims.
For example, in the Westminster Bridge attack in London in March 2017, the attacker, Khalid Masood, simply collided with pedestrians in a rented Hyundai Tucson. He then began a loitering attack with a knife to stab and kill four pedestrians and a police officer; 49 were injured in this attack.
In Thursday’s attack in Nice, the perpetrator apparently acted alone, staging a knife attack and killing three.
In these attacks, and in most of the more than 100 separate attacks by the Islamic State in cities in the European Union since 2014, most of the perpetrators were shot and killed or detained by the common local police who acted as first responders.
Last night’s attack in Vienna appears at the time of writing to have been a more sophisticated attack. The 20-year-old assailant who was shot and killed had a criminal record and was on the security and intelligence radar.
It is reported that he was armed with at least two automatic firearms: a pistol and an automatic rifle. He was also reported to be carrying a large amount of ammunition and wearing a fake suicide vest.
Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurtz has stated that it is a “very professionally planned” attack and “definitely a terrorist attack”. Interior Minister Karl Nehammer has suggested that there may have been more than one attacker, stating that “we have brought together various special forces units that are now looking for the suspected terrorists … these are mobile perpetrators.”
It remains to be seen whether or not there was more than one aggressor. However, reports of last night’s attack suggest that it was intended to be a mass casualty incident, not unlike the Paris attacks in November 2015, when 130 innocent civilians were killed by several gunmen carrying automatic rifles and pistols.
The Vienna attacker is reported to have staged a “hybrid” loitering attack at six locations in the city center. Shooting reports range from “over 100” to “about 50 shots.”
Eyewitnesses reportedly claimed that the attacker “fired savagely” at people in open-air restaurants. The attack appears to have started at 8 pm local time and ended when local police shot the perpetrator shortly after, near St. Rupert’s Church.
It may be the case, given the eyewitness accounts so far, that the attacker has not had the opportunity to reload his weapon more than once, with a large amount of ammunition found on his person. If this is the case, Vienna had a very lucky break last night.
The death toll of four killed, so far, is relatively low compared to other firearms attacks in European cities in recent years. Although extremely tragic, the death toll in this cobbled area of Vienna’s first district, not unlike the Grafton Street area in Dublin, lined with restaurants, bars and cafes, could have been much higher.
A new wave of IS?
Following the Nice and Vienna attacks, concerned citizens will worry about a resurgence of Islamic State attacks in Europe. The destruction of the so-called Islamic State Caliphate in Iraq and Syria certainly coincided with a dramatic drop in terrorist killings in Europe from a high of 150 in 2015 to just 13 deaths in 2018 and just 10 in the EU in 2019.
However, during this period, the number of unsuccessful attempted attacks by Islamist extremists remained high, with a total of more than 50 terrorist operations in just the last three years.
Despite the loss of its so-called ‘Caliphate’ in Iraq and Syria and the loss of its leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, killed during an operation by American forces around this time last year, the Islamic State continues to adapt and evolve to your new operation. environment.
With a new leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al Qurayshi, the Islamic State has relocated or shifted its center of gravity of activities to new theaters of operations in Asia and Africa.
ISIS has mounted operations in the Philippines this year, killing 11 Philippine army soldiers in April this year. The Islamic State remains very active in Afghanistan and is believed to be responsible for the murder of 19 people at Kabul University this week.
The Islamic State is also very active in West Africa, Central Africa, Egypt and Yemen. According to the UN head of counterterrorism Vladimir Voronkov, the Islamic State is reorganizing and actively recruiting, with 10,000 active fighters in Syria and Iraq, and more than 3,500 fighters in the newly configured ‘ISWAP’ – Province of Islamic State West Africa.
International defense and intelligence agencies believe that the Islamic State has not “gone away.” Rather, it remains a threat. Some believe it has used the cover of Covid 19 to reorganize itself in Europe to target and groom young men and women in a period of increased social isolation and unemployment.
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The new leader of the Islamic State has strongly called for a resurgence of attacks on Western targets.
It is unclear whether the Nice and Vienna attacks herald such a resurgence. Over the past three years, the EU police and intelligence agencies have demonstrated their ability to successfully identify, disrupt and prevent such attacks.
Dr. Tom Clonan is a former captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, teaching classes at the Media School at DIT. You can follow it on Twitter.
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