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Ireland could suffer another 1,200 deaths from Covid-19 by the end of the year if the use of face masks remains at current levels, according to a forecast by American academics.
The number of additional deaths could remain below 400 if mask use rises to near-universal levels, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which is based at the University of Washington.
The number of daily cases could increase to almost 8,000 and the health service would have 400 short ICU beds in the worst-case scenario of the IHME model, which involves a continuous lifting of restrictions.
Research predicts 2,940 deaths in Ireland by January 1 if mask use remains at current levels. In the best-case scenario, where more than 95 percent of people wore masks, there would be 2,180 deaths, compared to 1,777 deaths recorded so far.
Saving 770,000 lives
By the end of the year, Ireland is forecast to need 1,037 of the 1,573 hospital beds available to treat virus patients. Some 454 ICU beds would be needed with only 53 available and 433 ventilators would be needed.
Globally, IHME predicts 2.8 million deaths from Covid-19 by the end of the year, up from 1.9 million today, assuming that the use of masks and other mitigation measures remain unchanged. By December, up to 30,000 people could be dying daily around the world, he says, adding that 770,000 lives could be saved through the use of masks, social distancing and other protective measures.
“These first global projections by country offer a dismal prognosis, as well as a roadmap towards Covid-19 relief that government leaders and individuals can follow,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray.
Prevent transmission
“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia and the United States. But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: the use of masks, social distancing and limits to social gatherings are vital to help prevent the transmission of the virus.
Last April, Irish authorities criticized IHME’s view that Ireland’s death rate had peaked as unreliable. However, it turned out to be largely accurate, as did its projection of 150,000 deaths in Europe during the first surge of the pandemic. So far, deaths on the continent amount to 182,000.
The Health Department did not respond to a request for comment on the latest forecast last night.
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