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The rule of running marathons, it is said, is that the first half lasts 20 miles, and the second half six and a little.
It’s a bit like that with the Covid-19 epidemic; Having traveled the difficult terrain for long stretches, we discovered that we are halfway there at best and that the road ahead seems like a long job.
Ireland’s plan to escape the blockade, described by officials who designed it as cautious and conservative, follows the best international advice.
But it is also the product of the situation the country was in earlier this month, with too many cases and deaths occurring every day, and a large number of viruses circulating in ways we knew very little about.
Furthermore, it takes into account the weaknesses in the system that have hampered, and may continue to hinder, our effectiveness in finding remaining cases so that the virus does not return.
These include the provision of personal protective equipment for healthcare workers, which is still a source of complaint for many on the frontline of healthcare.
Despite an increase in testing capacity, that system still does not inspire confidence, with reported community response times of three to four days and continued anecdotal reports of much longer waits: 12 days, in the case of a person who contacted me yesterday. The hospital system, where samples of healthcare workers are analyzed, works faster, but delays are also reported.
An effective system to track the virus will require that test results are provided much faster, at most 24 hours, so that cases can be identified and contacts can be isolated.
The same applies to contact tracing, where only a fraction of the number of trained personnel is used for this job. This despite the fact that it takes an average of six days to complete the contact trace for each case.
In the run-up to the first relaxation of the restrictions on May 18, some difficult decisions will have to be made about travel to the country. We made mistakes on trips abroad; allowing Italian rugby fans to enter the state Cheltenham is excited and does not implement a travel ban or mandatory quarantine to help stop the importation of cases.
These are tough measures, but if they had been implemented before, we could be almost ready to lift them now, as are other countries.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar told the Dáil during the week that forcing visitors to complete forms to insulate themselves for 14 days “was not good for tourism.” However, it is difficult to see what tourism is likely to occur in the coming months.
Stricter travel restrictions may allow for greater or earlier relaxation of internal restrictions, as scientists try to juggle the loosening of different measures in such a way that it does not trigger a second wave of the virus.
The challenge posed by unrestricted travel across the border with Northern Ireland would remain, but at least the approaches for the two jurisdictions seem to be converging.
The blockade was a unique response to an impending crisis; what is needed now is greater agility, flexibility and focus.
Not all measures had the same impact in terms of slowing the virus, as suggested by a study published last week by the University of East Anglia. The ban on mass gatherings, the closure of pubs and restaurants, and the closure of schools had the biggest impact, while the home stay policies and general business closings were much less effective, he found.
After the initial restrictions, many of the measures we subsequently introduced were effectively duplicated in the large mass of people who were already adhering to the “new normal”.
As we discovered, a large number of virus cases are concentrated in specific areas: health workers, residential care centers, meat factories, marginalized groups. Until now, the system has been slow to identify and focus on these areas with approaches tailored to the needs of those affected.
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