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Met Eireann warned of “much cooler” conditions looming from the middle of next week as a big winter turn is expected.
While Carlow Weather’s Alan O’Reilly has also posted an urgent update on a forecasting model showing snowfall during a storm in early December.
The meteorology expert said the ECMWF model for December 5 is “an outlier” and sharing the forecast without context is “just silly.”
He explained: “The night run of the ECMWF model shows a storm in 9 days with snow. * However * the sets show that this is an outlier. That is the main run that shows very out of line with the average of the models. The black line in the first photo shows this.
“The average run here, as you can see, is totally different. In other words, ignore any online forecast that is based solely on this run of a model that appears to be out of line with all the others and even with the mean of it. model.
“Sharing the model forecast without understanding it and sharing it within the context of the sets is silly.”
Meanwhile, a frosty night awaits us tonight, as temperatures drop to -2 ° C.
A forecaster from Met Eireann said: “A cold start with fog and frost in some places. It will be a mostly dry day, albeit rather dull, with isolated rains on the coasts. Temperatures this afternoon only 3 to 6 degrees in the north, until 8 degrees south, winds will be light from the south or variable direction.
“Tonight there will be spotty light rain and drizzle in the south and east later as the cloud thickens there, overall it will be a mostly dry night once more and under clear skies temperatures will drop by minus 2 to plus 2 degrees again, the fog can form and become dense in patches.
“Tomorrow Saturday will be cloudy with irregular light rain and drizzle at times. Temperatures will be between 5 and 7 degrees overall, rising in the south later in the day to 9 to 11 degrees. Winds will be light to moderate from the east.
“There will be isolated showers on Sunday, but generally a dry day with cloudy conditions prevailing. Temperatures will be between 9 and 11 degrees with variable light; winds. Temperatures will drop overnight to between 3 and 5 degrees.”
However, next week is when we will start to see a change, with “much colder” weather expected starting Wednesday.
One forecaster added: “Monday will be mostly dry with brighter morning weather in the south and east for a while, clouds in the northwest will bring outbreaks of rain there otherwise a generally dry day again with temperatures 9-10 degrees with a moderate wind from the southwest, sometimes cool in the north Little change in temperatures overnight as it remains cloudy but mostly dry.
“Tuesday will also be cloudy and mostly dry with afternoon temperatures around 10 degrees Celsius with light winds heading west.
“Current indications suggest little change to start on Wednesday, but there is a sign that much colder conditions will end the week.”
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