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Green shoots in winter are an unusual sight, but we can safely see them in the current fight against coronavirus.
There is definitely something new in the air now.
It is palpable and uplifting.
And it is not the climatic transition of November from autumn to winter.
This week marked the beginning of a turning point for Ireland and keeping it will be the big test.
But the first signs are very encouraging.
On all key indicators, the battle to suppress Covid-19 is working.
However, great wars are won, not usually with one great victory, but with many small ones.
Level 5 restrictions are severe.
But it has also felt different than before.
This time the schools are open, more businesses are operating and as a result, more people are on the move.
Of course, it is also dark, cold and humid, unlike the beginning of the year.
But the shock that came with the first confinement is gone.
People knew what to expect this time even if they didn’t like it.
There is also a great prize at stake.
There is less than seven weeks until the Christmas / New Years period.
Most people want him to be his best and are clearly trying.
It has been such a desperate year that there is so much hope for a beautiful Christmas with your loved ones.
This has probably helped to unify people again and there is a renewed sense of solidarity between the generations.
The battles over wearing masks, what the best social distancing rules should be, and what the stats tell us have largely played out now.
The dramatic reduction in the incidence of Covid-19 among people aged 19-24 was notable this week. It is also a testament to the commitment of the youngest, who have received much criticism. This age group has cut their contacts in half in the last five weeks. That is a wonderful achievement.
It is also notable that Ireland and Finland are the only European countries in the EU where reductions in the 14-day incidence of Covid-19 have been seen.
Just a few weeks ago, figures of more than 1,200 cases were reported a day.
It’s a sobering lesson in how quickly you can alter the direction of this virus.
The mood of the country has changed. It seems like we’re in this together again, at least for a while.
The coronavirus emergency will come to an end at some point.
It will take time for the virus to subside, but hopefully that timescale will be later next year.
If that happens, there will surely be a boom period. People will want to travel, buy new clothes, go out to dinner, and spend again.
We will never see life the same way after the coronavirus. He has taught us to treasure what is precious. There will be a future after all this, and therefore there are reasons to be joyful, as we fight for what we face now.
The view from NPHET is that we are on target. Makes a change from NPHET to itself as a target.
The trajectory of the virus is close to where experts would like it to be at this point, to achieve the reductions expected by early December.
At that time, the government will make decisions about the reopening of the country.
NPHET would like to see the number of daily cases drop 6-8% on most days through the end of this month.
Observations by some NPHET members that in December the levels of high-risk indoor discretionary social contacts that people need to stay low could be seen as an early warning that they will not want to open indoor pubs and restaurants, including hotels, at Christmas. That could become a major problem if case trends improve a lot by then.
At this stage, no one can predict where we will get to by the end of December.
Certainly, the various levels from 1 to 5 established in the Government’s Living with Covid-19 plan can become a bit blurry if new conditions are added for the Christmas / New Year period.
The Christmas period is vital from an economic, social and spiritual point of view.
For hotels, restaurants and pubs, it is also one of their peak periods.
In the deep end of December in Ireland, dining al fresco is not a realistic option.
So it will take a delicate balancing act to allow society and the economy to function at this time of year, but also not allow the virus to gain a new foothold.
During the first confinement, attendance and hospital admissions were drastically reduced. Most non-essential health services were stopped. It resulted in worrying delays in care, including the interruption of screening services.
This time it is different. Many non-Covid-19 services continue, albeit at a slightly reduced rate, given the need for coronavirus precautions. But again it is cause for concern that the number of patients who come to emergency departments and are admitted to the hospital is decreasing. People’s delay in seeking care can be very serious.
During the peak of the coronavirus in April here, the number of patients attending emergency departments dropped in one week to 13,444. A typical week would have more than 26,000 attendees.
The latest HSE figures show that the number of patients who came to the emergency department in the week to early November fell to 20,729. This has resulted in reduced admissions.
The message from the HSE is that hospitals are open and safe for Covid-19 care and not Covid-19. Doctors are also operating. Late care may mean that when patients finally attend, the health intervention may need to be more meaningful. Delays can also be fatal.
In addition to the threat posed by Covid-19, there is also a campaign to vaccinate the greatest number of people in risk groups against influenza. So far, no confirmed cases of influenza have been detected here. In Europe, influenza cases are low and this is likely helped by social distancing and hygiene practices against Covid-19.
The HSE has been running a campaign to vaccinate at-risk groups, including children, against influenza. Nearly 1.2 million adult vaccines have been administered. That’s more than in the 2019/20 and 2018/19 seasons and much faster than in previous years as well. Children are being given about 600,000 nasal spray doses.
For some people outside the risk groups who want to get the flu vaccine, it has been difficult. There has been a shortage due to demand and many chemists report that they cannot receive the vaccine. International demand has been such that for people trying to get vaccinated privately, it is frustrating. If not resolved, it has the potential to undermine the overall influenza vaccination program.
There has been a lot of debate about the relevance of the underlying conditions for people who contract Covid-19. The latest report from the Center for Health Protection Surveillance shows that just under 94% of people who have died with Covid-19 had an underlying condition. People with an underlying condition are much more likely to require hospitalization and intensive care.
The most common underlying conditions in the deceased are chronic heart disease (44%), chronic neurological disease (35%), hypertension (18.7%), and chronic respiratory disease (18.3%).
There was an important point raised by Dr. Tony Holohan, Medical Director, at the Health Department briefing on Thursday night about the underlying conditions.
He noted that there was a narrative in some quarters that somehow people of a certain age or those with an underlying disease dying with Covid-19 are not as important as other people. The suggestion is that a certain number of deaths in this category are acceptable. Dr. Holohan described this narrative as offensive.
All lives matter. Designating one life as less valuable than another is a slippery slope. The job of doctors and society is to do everything possible to prevent as many deaths as possible from this virus.
Health Minister Stephen Donnelly said late last week that the test methods for Covid-19 are being validated and could be ready in a few weeks. He said that if they are as good as the manufacturers claim, they could be a game changer. One caveat here.
The current “gold standard” for testing is PCR. Identify the genetic material of the virus. It is currently the most sensitive and specific test.
There are antigen tests, which are not as sensitive and can miss one in five cases. The World Health Organization has emphasized that rapid antigen tests are not adequate for detecting population groups without symptoms, such as arriving passengers. It is best implemented in areas where there is a high rate of positivity.
There will be a use for antigen testing. Many European countries are using the system. One of the advantages is the speed of this test. At this stage, work is underway to validate the tests and find out where they can best be used.
Along with the work underway to try to find a safe and effective vaccine, the best and fastest testing methods surely must be another important area to help keep the virus at bay and also liberate society and business.
Starting tomorrow night the EU traffic light system will come into operation.
Colors are based on the 14-day incidence of cases per 100,000 people.
People coming from a green region will not have to restrict their movements for 14 days when arriving here.
People coming from the EU Orange regions will be able to come to Ireland without having to restrict their movements, once they have had a negative PCR test, three days before arrival.
For those arriving from a red region, they will be asked to restrict their movements for 14 days. However, this will not apply if they have a negative PCR test result five days after arriving here. The practical details of that change and where the approved tests will take place are yet to be finalized.
The coronavirus has changed our daily lives.
And it has exposed fissures in society and between doctors, scientists and politicians.
It has been deeply grounded in people’s reservations and more will be demanded.
This virus has reminded people of the importance of freedom, unity and calm, in the face of great threat.
The fight against the coronavirus has demanded new ways of life, different thinking and resilience.
We seem better prepared now than before, even more focused.
And while the work is not finished.
Now we have the target view.
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