[ad_1]
Ireland may have to cope with repeated waves of Covid-19 epidemics until a large enough proportion of the population is infected to provide possible herd immunity, new research warns.
At best, there may be three more cycles of infection before 60 percent of the population has the virus, which is considered enough to provide potential immunity to the herd, according to modeling analysis led by an Irish scientist at King’s College London.
However, it could take up to nine more waves of infection, and subsequent blockages, before the herd’s possible immunity is reached, under a second model developed by Dr. Rosalyn Moran and her fellow researchers.
The issue of collective immunity has been the subject of intense debate, however, during the Covid-19 pandemic and WHO epidemiologists in recent days warned that there was still no evidence that having a coronavirus infection confers immunity. over a significant period of time.
The current outbreak in Ireland is peaking now, according to analysis by King’s College, which estimates the eventual number of cumulative deaths between 1,008 and 1,250.
Dr. Moran stresses that there is “nothing set in stone” about modeling predictions made in research that she says shows the need for Ireland to replicate South Korea’s test levels for the virus and contact tracing for known cases.
The number of deaths and confirmed cases reported in the Republic on Sunday showed a slight decrease in recent days. Another 39 people died from Covid-19, while there were 493 other confirmed cases of the virus, the Center for Health Protection Surveillance said.
There have now been 610 Covid-19 related deaths in the state, while the number of confirmed cases is 15,251.
Air of complacency
Health Minister Simon Harris said Sunday night that he feared an air of complacency was “infiltrating” in relation to Ireland’s battle with Covid-19, which should be rejected. “We are making really good progress … but progress is fragile. We are in a very delicate moment and it would not take much to reverse it, “he said.
He called on people not to relax with restrictions. “Now is not the time for complacency … that would be disastrous, it could be fatal,” he added.
All but two of the deaths reported Sunday were in the east of the country.
Dr. Moran’s research suggests that between 6.5% and 16.7% of the Irish population will have been affected by the current coronavirus epidemic and therefore may enjoy some immunity against the disease. In the UK, where research predicts 50,000 deaths, the outbreak is estimated to have affected 19.6 percent.
The research, which looked at the number of “shutdown cycles” that may be required in seven European countries, says that a large proportion of the total population in each country will remain without immunity after the current wave of infection.
“This suggests that in the absence of strong seasonal effects, new medications, or more comprehensive contact monitoring, a new set of epidemic waves is likely to occur in different geographic centers. These findings may have implications for ‘exit strategies’ for any stage of closure. “
Backlog removed
The Health Service Executive said yesterday that it has removed the backlog of people waiting for Covid-19 tests. He said 27 laboratories, including one in Germany, now process 10,000 test results a day.
Over the weekend, 4,000 nursing home employees and residents were evaluated as part of an increased HSE response to escalating cases and deaths in the sector. According to HSE, the number of outbreaks or suspected outbreaks in long-term care facilities is now 248.
Meanwhile, the state’s largest teachers union has warned that the health and safety of students and teaching staff must be guaranteed before any decision is made to reopen primary schools.
The National Teachers’ Organization of Ireland (INTO) was responding to comments by Mr. Harris, who raised the possibility of a partial reopening of schools over the weekend.
If the schools reopen, it could be on the basis of one day a week, the minister suggested.
But last night, Mr. Harris said, “We are going to have this virus with us for a long time. I am not looking forward to a turnaround time on May 5 where the current restrictions are suddenly reversed.”
Meanwhile, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar was due to receive the results of a review of the foreign worker and travel rules on Sunday night.
Bulgarian workers
Varadkar ordered the review after fruit grower Keelings sent nearly 200 Bulgarians to Ireland to work on their farms.
The 189 workers arrived in Dublin on a chartered plane last week to do seasonal work at the Keelings fruit farms. It is understood that a number of options will be presented in the document which will then be considered by the Covid 19 Cabinet committee on Monday. A government source said the problem was “difficult” since workers could be considered essential workers, but concerns about the safety of travel arrangements remained.
Sources said an option likely to be considered in the footsteps of the review is to verify those traveling to Ireland to ensure they remain isolated during the designated 14-day period.
There are now more than 2.3 million coronavirus cases worldwide and more than 160,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University monitoring.
[ad_2]