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People should continue to try to get a flu vaccine as soon as possible even though no cases have been reported so far this winter, the state’s top virologist warned.
The Health Protection Surveillance Center (HPSC) has found that no confirmed cases of influenza A or influenza B have been reported in the state since late spring. The zero cases is an unprecedented scenario and compares with hundreds of cases reported last winter, including more than 450 in the fortnight before Christmas, when influenza was at its peak.
The absence of flu cases has reduced the likelihood of a “twindemic”, where influenza and Covid-19 circulate at the same time. Such a scenario would put the health service under severe pressure.
Dr Cillian de Gascun, head of the National Virus Reference Laboratory, said it is probably too early to say with certainty that the flu season will be mild.
“The season usually reaches its peak in the first quarter of the year [January to March 2020] but based on the experience in the southern hemisphere, there is reason to be hopeful, “he said.
Very promising
He also said it was premature to say that a twin epidemic would not occur, but added that the near total absence of influenza activity at this time is very promising.
He said it was still his advice that people get the flu shot.
“We have no idea what will happen in the new year, and the vaccine takes two weeks to take effect, so now is the time to apply it.
“The main benefit of taking the influenza vaccine, in the context of a coronavirus pandemic, is that it will prevent morbidity and mortality, thus relieving pressure on the acute care hospital system.”
The absence of flu in Ireland reflects the experience in other parts of Europe and also in the southern hemisphere, which had virtually no flu cases during its mid-year winter.
The crackdown on international travel, the wearing of masks and the social distancing measures adopted for Covid-19, as well as an increase in the use of the influenza vaccine, have been attributed to the absence of influenza.
While there have been no confirmed cases, the number of Irish people who see their doctors with flu-like symptoms has been higher than last year for the past five weeks. The HSPC has said that this reflects the circulation of Covid-19 in the community rather than influenza viruses.
More susceptible
Professor Karina Butler, chair of the National Immunization Advisory Committee, said one of the reasons Italy had such a bad first wave last spring was because Covid-19 and flu were circulating at the same time. “You really don’t want the two to circulate together.”
People recovering from the flu are often exhausted and therefore may be more susceptible to the severe illness of Covid-19, he said.
Professor Butler said that the normal flu season in the southern hemisphere “did not occur” earlier this year.
While the reasons for this weren’t certain, it appeared that the confinement, wearing of masks and other public health measures introduced to combat Covid-19 had also reduced flu transmission, he said.
Furthermore, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a contagious virus that infects the respiratory tract of children, is also absent in Ireland this winter. However, in Australia, RSV occurred at the end of the year, during the summer, according to Professor Butler.
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