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IF THE NEW RESTRICTIONS that take effect as of tonight have no effect on the spread of the coronavirus, it is anticipated that there will be between 1,800-2,200 cases of Covid-19 per day and more than 400 people with Covid-19 in the hospital for Halloween.
Professor Philip Nolan, chair of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group, gave the raw figures at a debriefing at the Department of Health tonight.
He said hospitalizations are “increasing exponentially, in fact increasing exponentially faster than we projected 14 days ago.”
These figures come after the government indicated that new restrictions would come into effect tonight that would discourage home visits except for essential reasons.
Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan counties will be subject to Level 4 restrictions. These restrictions will last for four weeks, until Tuesday, November 10.
Speaking at tonight’s briefing, Nolan said the R number this week is estimated to be around 1.4 nationally down from 1.2 last week, but in Dublin it is closer to 1, while in the rest of the country is around 1.6, and possibly as high. like 1.8.
“What happens over the next two weeks depends a lot on the breeding number,” Nolan said.
Tips from Holohan and Glynn
Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan and Deputy Medical Director Dr. Ronan Glynn said these breeding numbers are evidence that people are still changing their behaviors to limit the spread of the virus; At the beginning of the pandemic, the R number was estimated at 4 or 5.
Dr. Glynn showed graphs indicating that there had not been a decrease in the movement of people, their use of public transportation, the number of people commuting to work, or the number of people using ATMs in recent days and weeks.
Source: Sam Boal; RollingNews.ie
He emphasized the particular problem of people who still don’t work from home where they can, also adding: “It’s just not acceptable this winter to go to work with cold and flu symptoms.”
He says this is the kind of story they hear over and over again.
Holohan said: “Ultimately, it is our individual behaviors, in our homes, in our social environment, at work, our adherence to all public health councils, that determines whether a certain level is successful.”
Regardless of what people have been doing … we are urging people to act; now is the time for people to act, take individual responsibility
Eliminate, as much as possible, non-essential social contact … Socializing, visiting other people’s houses, going to play or facilitating all these kinds of activities, now is not the time for them.
He said the scale of infection in the population is at a level where there is such widespread community transmission that contact tracing was no longer a priority:
The reality is that we just don’t know who all the cases or contacts are to reliably map those things. At the point of infection that we have right now, it can no longer be considered a target.
The bad news and a little hope at the end
Source: Sam Boal; RollingNews.ie
The 14-day incidence nationwide is 206.7 per 100,000 per population, and the positivity rate in the last 7 days is 6.2%.
As of 2:00 p.m. today, 241 Covid-19 patients are hospitalized, of which 29 are in the ICU. There have been 24 additional hospitalizations in the last 24 hours.
He said that while the epidemic is not growing as fast in Dublin as it is in the rest of the country, it is growing.
In Dublin, the five-day moving average on October 1 was 182 cases per day, on October 8 it was down to 131 cases per day, but as of today, it is up to 242 cases per day.
There was a record number of 1,205 Covid-19 cases reported today, with three confirmed deaths. It should be noted that we are conducting far more Covid-19 tests per day than during the first wave of Covid-19 in March and April.
No news is bad news
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At the moment, the Cabinet is not expected to meet tomorrow and no major new announcements are expected.
Nolan said he was concerned about the “tone” of tonight’s briefing, which he said was “serious and concerned” but not “hopeless or hopeless.”
“If… we collectively go back and distance ourselves, we stop spreading the disease in two weeks, those 10,000 people [who would contract Covid-19 in the next few weeks if nothing changes] – most of them will recover. And they are not spreading the disease.
“On the one hand… if we are growing, it is really very dangerous, but if we are here and we start to shrink, we can get through this faster than we think.
So the message here has to be about: more of those basic things could change this faster than we think.
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