[ad_1]
Thirty years ago, at a time when some European leaders were skeptical about German reunification, Ireland made an intervention to help her that has never been forgotten in Berlin.
Dublin assumed the rotating European presidency in January 1990, shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall. At the time, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and Italian Prime Minister Giulio Andreotti had reservations about the unification of the East and the West.
But Charles Haughey argued in favor, telling the Dáil that “as a divided country. . . we would have an underlying sympathy for the efforts of any other people who want to achieve their reunification. ”
He went on to chair a special European summit in Dublin which turned out to be a milestone, securing the support of member states for the unification and integration of the united Germany into what would become the modern EU.
German Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s words to Haughey were: “Germany will never forget what it has done for us.”
And in fact it has not been forgotten. Ireland’s “significant contribution to achieving German reunification” is mentioned in the second sentence of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs page on German-Irish relations.
Could Germany or another EU state play a similar role in the event of a referendum on Irish unity?
EU policy
The EU has not formulated a common policy towards the UK’s potential breakup, as there is no room for such a conversation until highly sensitive post-Brexit negotiations are concluded. All matters relating to Great Britain and Northern Ireland are handled by the UK Relations Task Force, led by Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier, for now.
Once the transition period is over, the UK file will be handled by the bloc’s Ministry of Defense, Foreign Affairs and Diplomats, the European External Action Service. It has directors for different global regions, under which teams of desk officers dedicated to specific portfolios work.
Starting in January, a dedicated officer will cover Northern Ireland, Great Britain and the overlapping issues in the Republic, The Irish Times understands. Border problems, of course, will be part of that task.
“We are getting all these reports about the dissatisfaction in Scotland, the change of views in Northern Ireland,” said a Brussels source. “Of course we are following him.”
When it comes to Irish unity, opinions are widely benevolent across Europe, partly the legacy of decades of popular culture in which the Irish national struggle has been romantically portrayed.
“The Irish tend to be framed, to put it very crudely, like the good guys,” said Alexander Clarkson, professor of German, European and international studies at King’s College London.
European political parties on the left tend to view unification positively, while in the wake of Brexit, those leaning to the right see it increasingly pragmatic and more of a question of “when” than “if.”
Isolated trade unionists
Apart from anything else, unification is seen as simplifying the issue of managing the EU’s external border, as French President Emmanuel Macron bluntly acknowledged during the Brexit talks when he commented last year that unity would “solve all the problems, but it is not up to par with France. “
Unionists are politically isolated in Europe, as a consequence of their adoption of Euroscepticism, lack of ties in continental political systems, and over-reliance on London to protect their interests.
This means that, ironically, it could be the diplomats and leaders of the Republic who end up explaining the unionist position and urging caution on the issue.
“I don’t think I’ve ever met a Unionist politician who really understood how other European political systems work and communicate. They just don’t have advocates for their cause, ”Dr. Clarkson said.
“You have the paradox that to understand how complicated this is, the unionists are going to trust Micheál Martin, Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar to explain what the problem is from a unionist perspective,” he added.
“Ultimately, trade unionists are going to rely on the Irish government to communicate how complicated things are in Northern Ireland and that we don’t want to rush, this requires the consent of the community.”
Uncertainty is messy
Former Taoiseach Enda Kenny paved the way for North Korea’s re-entry to the bloc in April 2017 when he managed to win unanimous agreement from member states that the area would automatically join the EU in the event of a successful unity referendum.
When it comes to Scottish independence, which is seen as an issue closely linked to Irish unification, it is often noted that Spain might be reluctant to allow its accession to the EU for fear of setting a precedent for Catalonia.
But diplomats believe that as long as the vote is fully constitutional and agreed between London and Edinburgh, Madrid could complain but will not get in the way.
Defense ministries, however, are wary of the implications that the disintegration of the United Kingdom would have on Western security, given that Great Britain remains one of the most important members of NATO and has a permanent seat on the Security Council of The United Nations.
France, which is geopolitically ambitious and used to working alongside Britain on companies abroad, is probably particularly concerned.
Who would defend Irish airspace against raids by the Russian air force instead of the British RAF fighter jets that currently do the job?
What about the British military installations, particularly the Trident nuclear weapons system that is based in Scotland?
“None of us like the uncertainty in all of this. The uncertainty, particularly around security and common defense, is complicated, ”commented a diplomat.
But a key difference now is that these questions are being asked.
EU Unity Policy
The EU can and has formed common positions in the past to support unification, as in the case of Germany and Cyprus, which held a referendum on unity in 2004.
EU common positions are initiated when the diplomatic corps of the bloc or a member state raises an issue in one of the committees where national diplomats meet to discuss the policy, which can then be elevated to be adopted as a formal policy by meetings of national ministers.
On the issue of unity, Member States and the European Commission would probably expect Dublin to take the lead in raising the issue and pay close attention to Ireland’s position in forming their own perspectives.
But while Dublin would be influential, other member states would also have to balance their relations with London when considering the issue, and the European Commission is very wary of getting involved in border disputes that could bring trouble on its doorstep.
Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald has used the Cyprus precedent to argue that the EU should openly support Irish unity.
But the 2004 experience may actually serve as a warning to Brussels to be more cautious in taking a position in the future, as the EU burned down for its support when the Greek part of the island voted against unity, and continues to deal with the complex. fall out.
Peace and cash
When addressing Northern Ireland, the European Commission often focuses on the issue of peace. The EU put the protection of peace at the forefront of Brexit negotiations, and there is a sense of responsibility for maintaining it after years of EU funding for border and community peace projects over the years.
In a budget deal this summer, € 120 million was set aside to continue such funding, regardless of Brexit. If any votes were to emerge, the reaction across the EU would depend on the circumstances.
If a referendum were held in accordance with the Belfast Agreement, with the consent of all parties and decisive results, there would probably be applause across the continent. Many continental observers are not convinced that even conservative politicians in England are still unionists when it comes to Northern Ireland, and a successful referendum is likely to be widely viewed as an orderly resolution of history.
But until support for the idea is broad and formally declared, Brussels will likely hedge its bets.
“I think the EU would probably go for a position of benevolent neutrality, take the position that this is an island issue, but if Northern Ireland does go for EU membership in Ireland, the EU will not get in the way. , ”Dr. Clarkson said.
“I guess they will smother Northern Ireland with EU cash to try to keep things quiet. A proven method in the EU. And the integration of Northern Ireland into the EU system would be accelerated. I don’t think it is a difficult position to reach. “
[ad_2]