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But since Messi can meet Guardiola at Manchester City, that 2011-12 season – a remarkable outlier even by his standards – serves as a reminder of how well they were together. Messi had scored 42 goals for Barcelona before Guardiola took over in 2008. He scored 211 in 219 games for him, improving each year: 38, 47, 53, 73.
Maybe he will leave Barcelona on a downward curve from that peak he climbed under his mentor. His 31 goals last season made it his least productive season of the last 12. But 26 assists meant he was still directly involved in 57 goals, more than Everton or Sheffield United achieved in all competitions, and his tally of 21 in La Liga it was a record for the top Spanish category.
Meanwhile, City added 102 Premier League goals, bringing their three-season tally to 303. Lack of firepower was not the reason they failed to retain the title, but Messi’s possible marriage and City raises the question of how powerful they could be. .
Even in his least prolific year in a dozen, Messi remained La Liga’s top scorer. Jamie Vardy won the Premier League Golden Boot but Sergio Agüero, with 0.99 goals in 90 minutes, had the best goal ratio, while Raheem Sterling tied for third place and Gabriel Jesus for eighth. Messi, with 0.78, was leader of La Liga.
Messi’s average of 4.8 shots per game was half the shots of any City player and, in Europe’s top five leagues, behind only his longtime rival, shooting addict Cristiano Ronaldo. In particular, Messi’s average of 2.5 efforts per game from outside the box is an outlier; only Kevin de Bruyne (1.7) was above 1.0 long-distance attempts per game for Guardiola’s team.
Pairing Messi and De Bruyne, Europe’s two most creative players, brings the promise of more than one goal per game from their supply line alone. The Argentine averaged 0.62 assists per 90 minutes last season, the Belgian 0.64. Messi’s 2.7 key passes per game were the highest in La Liga, De Bruyne’s 3.9 far superior to any other in the Premier League. The midfielder created more from set pieces, suggesting that free kicks farthest from goal will remain his, although Messi has scored five free-kicks within shooting range. Corners could be divided: Messi largely took corners on the swing for Barcelona, De Bruyne both types for City.
In a world without Messi, City made so many chances that the profligate Jesús and the prolific Agüero finished first and second in expected goals every 90 minutes. De Bruyne was far from his sole creator: Riyad Mahrez was actually second in the division for assists expected by 90 minutes, and exiting David Silva fifth, but the Algerian’s playing time could be shortened by the possible arrival of Messi, especially if he was deployed to cut from the right.
Statistics of Lionel Messi LaLiga 2019/20
It’s reductive to call Messi a winger, but he’s multiplayer-in-one and a hypnotic dribbler embarking on more solo careers than most – his average of 5.5 dribbles per game was more than double that of all but Nabil Fekir in La Liga and more than Adama. Traore, Allan Saint-Maximin and Wilfried Zaha, the Premier League treadmills. Dribbling shaped City’s game plan much less: Sterling, ranked 26th, was their first representative on the list, so Messi could add another dimension.
It’s part of his irrepressible streak. One of his seemingly less exceptional stats is his average of 59.8 passes per game. And yet he is remarkable for a striker and only below the 61.8 of containment midfielder Casemiro. For comparison, De Bruyne averaged 54.5. The Premier League striker with the most was Willian, at 39.9. If Messi’s talent is worrisome enough for defenders, his relentlessness gives him a ubiquity that makes him a constant threat.
And it increases the range of possibilities. Both he and City have a habit of defeating opponents, of turning dominance into wins. City scored at least three goals 17 times last season and at least five seven times. Add Messi to the mix and those numbers could go up.
City’s league record of 106 goals in 2017-18 was the highest since Tottenham scored 115 in 1960-61. That could be beat: Barcelona scored at least 110 five times in six seasons in Messi’s best years, even if Aston Villa’s Division 1 record of 128 in 1930-31 should still be safe.
And if the trend from last season is that Messi is transitioning from scorer to provider, then De Bruyne’s new involvement in Thierry Henry’s Premier League record of 20 assists in one campaign could be in jeopardy. Messi’s threat could make him a threat to both his opponents and his teammates.
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