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Early indications are that polls have been proven incorrect in many cases, and several swing states show strong support for Donald Trump.
Despite that, Joe Biden appears to have won Arizona, a state that has been a Republican for many years.
The election is still too close to call, but there are some trends in voting patterns that have become apparent.
1. The industrial north will decide
Ohio is the definitive benchmark state that Trump secured in 2016 with its appeal to his sizable group of white voters with no college education. His focus on manufacturing and the problems caused by outsourcing made a difference in eastern Ohio, which had long voted Democrats but veered sharply to the right.
It is a benchmark because it has reflected the national result in all elections since 1944, except 1960.
In 2020, Trump increased his vote by at least 150,000 over the 2016 result.
The blue wall is made up of states that have turned Democratic in many recent elections but, in 2016, the Rust Belt states within it (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) turned red.
If what has happened in Ohio, which is also a northern state with large industrial areas, occurs through the northern industrial states of the blue wall, then it could spell defeat for Joe Biden.
Cordelia Lynch, a Sky correspondent, says there are signs that Donald Trump has improved his turnout in those states in 2016.
The data shows a higher share of votes for Trump in nearly every leading state, as well as Ohio.
Lynch says this is because states like Ohio tend to be whiter, straighter, and older.
2. The coronavirus can be key
Donald Trump’s attitude toward the pandemic has divided the United States, and many of those concerned about the level of infection in the country are dismayed by his approach to controlling its spread.
But many in the US say that he speaks for them, due to their reluctance to wear masks or have their livelihoods affected by the lockdowns.
The arguments have been furious as the United States has seen a fifth of all recorded cases worldwide.
Experts have said that these factors may have had an impact on the way people have voted in various of the battle states.
His comments could be supported by data, which shows that in states where, for example, masks have been made mandatory in public places, Donald Trump’s share of votes has been maintained or even increased.
Former Republican presidential adviser Lanhee Chen told Sky News that some in several Democratic-led states, who have seen tougher restrictions, particularly in the industrial north, may have voted for President Trump because they supported his approach.
He said, “The coronavirus lockdowns are a very divisive issue. For Trump, he clearly handled this issue in Michigan and used it to his advantage.”
Political scientist Ashley Koenig said: “We know that COVID has become very polarized. It was a bipartisan or non-partisan issue when it first passed through the United States and now it has become very polarized.
“So now it becomes this showdown between the economy and health and we’ve already seen some of the numbers in the exit polls … and there could be this contentious debate among those who feel the economy should move on, because they are losing their livelihood, their paychecks, compared to those who want to defend the security of society. “
3. The Latino vote was decisive in some Sun Belt states
In Florida, 48% of Latinos backed Donald Trump, possibly tilting the balance in favor of the incumbent. Democrats on the ground say they believe it was the Latino vote that was key to the president’s success in the state, which would have been critical if Joe Biden had won.
Trump was declared the winner in Florida after 96% of the votes were counted.
The data shows how many more Latinos backed Trump in 2020 compared to 2016.
Bradley Jackson, a Democratic activist in Florida, told Sky News that he could see the effect while campaigning.
He said: “One of the main things that I saw was in Miami Dade County – which is a Democratic stronghold – that the Hispanic population, mainly Cuban and Venezuelan, who have had socialist governments for so long, have taken that message that the GOP [Republican Party] “he said, calling Joe Biden a socialist and used it to convince people that this agenda is what is happening.”
Jackson added: “Many of them may have come out and voted and may have done worse than Hillary Clinton’s initiative, for Joe Biden this year.”
The impact was perhaps even more pronounced in Texas, where Democrats had once hoped to win, but where some areas with a high Latino population showed much higher levels of support for Trump in 2020 than in 2016.
4. ‘Shy Trumpers’ came out
Many commentators have said that the polls may have been wrong due to a phenomenon called Shy Trumper – voters who didn’t tell pollsters that they planned to vote for Trump, and then they did.
Chen told Sky News: “Biden was winning by a much larger margin. Polls are a reflection of assumptions about who will go to vote and pollsters must do their best to guess who will attend on Election Day.”
“Clearly what Trump has been able to do in these states is create a more favorable electorate for him. He is generating voters who will support him and demotivate those who would oppose him.”
A comparison of the average scores in the final polls, the day before the election, and the actual votes of the day, shows that Trump appeared to get far more votes than expected.
5. Drift from college education
Despite the initial belief that it was the growing Latino population in places like Arizona that made the difference, the data suggests that it is the increase in the number of people with better levels of education.
Trump’s margin in Arizona in 2016 was the smallest since Republican Bob Dole’s defeat to President Bill Clinton and the result in Maricopa (which includes Phoenix) was one of the reasons.
In 2020, the county appears to have changed, with the Democrats, around 10.50am UK time, ahead by almost 6 percentage points.
Maricopa is the county that includes Phoenix, a city that has seen an influx in recent years of better-educated Americans, drawn by a growing economy and higher-tech industries. 32% of the county’s residents now hold titles, the same as the US national average, and it is home to 60% of Arizona’s population.
If Joe Biden wins, it will come despite a surge in support for Donald Trump among Latino voters, which has risen similarly to how it has in Florida.
A phenomenon similar to that seen in Arizona regarding education was also seen in Minnesota, which Joe Biden won in 2020, as did Hillary Clinton in 2016.
6. Greater division between urban and rural areas
In several of the swing states, early indications are that Joe Biden saw a higher share of the vote, compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, among those living in urban areas.
Urban areas sometimes have higher proportions of college-educated voters and minority people, groups that used to support Clinton previously, but Biden saw more of them supporting him this time in states like Georgia, Minnesota and North Carolina.
The exception was Michigan, the home of America’s auto industry, where support for the Democrats seemed to fall in more urban areas, which have a high black population but a lower level of college education.
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