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So how are we doing overall?
Like many other European countries, Ireland is experiencing another rapid rise in Covid-19 cases. There has been a slight slowdown in recent days, but it is too early to tell if this is a definitive trend.
And where are the problem areas?
Most of the attention has focused on Dublin and Donegal, now both at level 3 of the Government framework plan, compared to level 2 in the rest of the country. The contagion rate in the capital is currently so high that Germany has declared it a risk zone for travelers.
The 14-day incidence of the virus in Donegal has more than doubled in one week, to 122.5 per 100,000 people. That’s not too far off the Dublin incidence of 140.3. Dr. Ronan Glynn said the 14-day rate in Lifford and Stranorlar was 336 per 100,000 people; Letterkenny at 81 per 100,000 and West Donegal at 92 per 100,000.
The number of cases in Louth is increasing more slowly, but has passed the 100 mark (106.3 cases per 100,000 residents), so the country is attracting specific warnings. Dundalk / Carlingford seems to be the hot spot in the country.
Waterford, which for months had the country’s lowest virus rates, saw cases skyrocket after an outbreak at a meat plant last month. The number of cases dropped slightly in recent days, giving rise to hope that the increase could be over.
Is there any good news in this?
There are some. Cases in Limerick, Leitrim and Tipperary have declined in recent days, and public health officials take credit for increased adherence of their populations to the new restrictions.
We must also remember that case numbers are not everything. They are also not comparable to the figures from the first increase, as we are testing more now and therefore detecting a higher proportion of infections. They are also milder cases than before, because most are found among the young.
But don’t more patients end up in the hospital?
Right. The number of Covid-19 patients admitted to hospital has quadrupled in one month, albeit from a low level, from 20 to 88. Admissions to the ICU are also increasing at a similar rate, to 16. One of every four recent ICU admissions are under 45 years of age; It is not known how many of these had underlying conditions.
Treatment options for hospitalized patients have improved since the early days of the pandemic, but at least some will have poor outcomes.
Why is the number of hospitals increasing?
You may well ask. One reason is that older and vulnerable people are becoming infected, even if the majority of cases are young. About half of those admitted to the hospital in recent weeks were 65 or older. Public health officials say it’s impossible to stop the virus from leaking into nursing homes and other vulnerable areas when transmission rates rise in the general population. However, European figures suggest that Ireland has one of the highest rates of infections among older age groups today.
What happens now?
There has been speculation about other counties moving to level 3, or even Dublin moving to level 4. A more granular approach has also been called for, so the worst affected parts of the counties could face additional restrictions. A more likely outcome is a further extension of the current restrictions, just as the national blockade in the spring and the Kildare blockade were “renewed.” Sub-county shifts seem unlikely at this stage.
The Government’s framework plan establishes a long list of criteria to trigger a level change, starting with incidence rates. Ultimately, the approach is formulated, not by an algorithm, but by officials from the National Public Health Emergency Team. NPHET recommends; the government decides.
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