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There is no destination but what we do for ourselves.
Those were the words of Leo Varadkar about 30 weeks ago when he announced the first closure of the coronavirus pandemic. The message was very clear: we had to give up our personal liberties and liberties for a greater cause. The virus was spreading, it had to be stopped, so in the spring the public took the measures with enthusiasm.
Now, when we are faced with a second lockdown on the eve of winter, the stakes are much higher. Billions have been borrowed and spent, the public has grown weary, and the solidarity between government and public health officials has worn away.
Behind closed doors, thus the State retreated towards the confinement.
It started on Saturday morning. A panel of high-powered politicians met to discuss the latest severe warnings from the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet). Prior to this, a private meeting was arranged between Taoiseach Micheál Martin and the two men responsible for guiding the State’s response to the pandemic, Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan, and his deputy, Dr. Ronan Glynn.
Saturday’s meetings once again highlighted the tension between the Government and public health
After this closed-door meeting, the doctors were joined by Professor Philip Nolan, chairman of the Irish Epidemiological Models Group and also a senior member of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet).
They featured the Taoiseach, Tánaiste, Green Party leader Eamon Ryan, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe, Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath and Health Minister Stephen Donnelly. HSE CEO Paul Reid was also present.
Those familiar with Nphet’s presentation say it focused on three key points: First, Nphet’s level of concern about the headline numbers and trends they were seeing. Health officials were also impressed that action was needed, and soon.
It was also debated which mathematical models Professor Nolan devised had been suggested in recent weeks and how it had been confirmed. More importantly, they emphasized that these reliable models showed significant increases in hospitalizations and the number of cases in the coming weeks. This was an effective duplication of the public warnings issued in recent weeks, but it came true, face to face.
The conversation centered on how the “R” number, which shows how quickly the virus is spreading, had deteriorated.
Reid then spoke to the group. Sources say his presentation had five main points. The first was that the hospital system is coping with it for now, but concerns were growing about an upward trend in admissions. Second, those concerns were particularly related to the emergence of more cases in those over 65. Then the time that Covid patients spend in hospitals and the impact it has was discussed.
Ministers were told that the increase in Covid-19 cases was affecting elective care in some hospitals. In relation to intensive care units, Mr. Reid said that as they coped, there was a risk that hospitalizations would increase.
The discussion covered a great deal of ground, according to those present. The possibility of cases recovering again after measures were relaxed, and the risk of another lockdown in January, were also highlighted.
Accordance
There were other important topics of conversation, particularly in relation to the social ramifications of another confinement. Cases of domestic violence nearly halved in the last confinement, and will likely do so again.
There are likely to be limitations on services to ensure child well-being. Households could expect to have problems with their mortgage payments again.
Issues related to compliance with the standards and their application were also discussed. Ministers backtracked to some extent, defending clearly defined metrics on what constituted success and when unlocking might take place.
There have also been last-minute meetings on mental health, with recommendations sent to Cabinet that a support package be advanced.
There was resistance to the element within six weeks of the recommendation. Even Sunday night, senior ministers believed that four weeks at improved Level 4 was the most likely outcome.
Then there was the economic impact to count. Level 5 restrictions could put an additional 167,000 people out of work, adding € 47 million a week to pandemic unemployment payment costs, and would cost the state more than € 1.2 billion overall in support under a six-month lockdown. weeks.
Tension
The meetings on Saturday also once again highlighted the tension between the government and public health.
Speaking before it emerged that the government was going to consider Tier 5, senior health sources spoke of “denial” in Europe’s political and government systems that are “struggling to cope with the reality” of exponential growth. They believed that the virus is out of control and must be repressed with restrictive measures.
Politicians also drew comparisons to ICU occupancy and hospitalization figures in the spring have been troublesome, as sources insist deaths and increased critical care burdens will follow. Meanwhile, they say a longer and more unpredictable lockdown would be necessary if 2,000 to 3,000 cases are seen a day.
The meetings concluded late on Saturday. The next morning, Leo Varadkar briefed Fine Gael ministers while Taoiseach Micheál Martin briefed line ministers well into Sunday night, the sources said.
On Monday morning, ministers rushed to organize different aspects of the state’s response to the impending shutdown. There were meetings on Merrion Street between finance ministers, senior officials, and advisers. The atmosphere in the government buildings was bleak.
There have also been last-minute meetings on mental health, with recommendations sent to Cabinet that a support package be advanced. State Minister Mary Butler briefed Stephen Donnelly on the services’ ability to handle consequences.
In this area, it is expected that the performance of the first blockade period will be repeated, in which 90% of services were maintained.
“I think we are better prepared now, but we don’t know what kind of increase we might see in people seeking mental health supports. That’s where my concern would be, because that’s something that we can’t predict, ”Ms. Butler said.
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