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It’s hard to see how public health officials won’t seek a third shutdown in January given their extremely bleak forecasts in recent days.
Medical director Dr. Tony Holohan, both in his letter to the government last week and in his comments at the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) briefing on Monday, clearly anticipates that the number of daily cases after Christmas will hit the kind of level that had twice prompted recommendations for swinging restrictions.
The euphoria surrounding the launch of a Covid-19 vaccine in Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK is understandable. But for now, and in the months to come, restrictions are the only way for the government to curb the increase in the number of cases, when other public health measures have failed.
In his letter, Dr. Holohan presented a sinister picture; case numbers didn’t drop enough after the last lockdown, they’re already on the rise again, and Christmas is coming with all the potentially risky socialization that goes with it.
As a result, Nphet is already revising its modeling forecast upwards. It had previously forecast up to 1,200 cases a day in mid-January; now Dr. Holohan predicts that this will be a reality by the second week of the month.
That may not sound like a big difference, but it is when it comes to exponential growth, as it seems likely next month.
That our numbers have already “bottomed out,” as the medical director put it, is evident in the divergent trends over 14 and seven days.
Ireland has the lowest incidence of the virus in 14 days in Europe, and this rate has fallen by 25 percent over the previous 14 days.
By contrast, the measure of trends over the past seven days has increased by 11% compared to the previous seven days, and Ireland suddenly has the fifth fastest increasing incidence in seven days in the EU.
Strong messages from public health officials against socializing over the next several weeks may slow the festivities a bit and slow the spread of the virus, but only to a limited extent given the high starting point after Level 5 restrictions. .
High figures
Our big problem is an amalgam of minor problems that are not difficult to discern.
First, the Border; the incidence of the virus in Donegal is 2.5 times higher than in the rest of the country and is increasing again faster than elsewhere. Louth also has high numbers.
This is not surprising given that Northern Ireland has four times the number of cases as the Republic. The virus continues to spread from the north, seriously damaging the Republic’s ability to control it.
We also have a hospital problem. The two highest-incidence counties today are Donegal and Kilkenny, where large outbreaks in local hospitals are filling wards and causing deaths.
Across the country, hospital outbreaks accounted for 46 deaths of the 140 that occurred last month, even more than the 41 in nursing homes.
According to Dr. Holohan’s letter, last month there were 60 hospital clusters in 24 locations, with 1,000 cases.
This is the reason why serial testing of healthcare workers will be introduced in January, making Ireland the first country in the world to take such a measure. Although, why wait until January?
The high incidence of cases among those over 65 is also a problem, although ongoing outbreaks in nursing homes can largely explain this.
Outbreaks are being controlled in hospitals and nursing homes, and another positive sign is the low number of cases in schools (a trend seen in the UK and other countries).
Still, as Dr. Holohan puts it, a surge in January is “more likely than not” now.
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