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Analysis: the data shows an increase in the cases of children, especially women, but a reduced number of admitted to hospitals
By Carol Barron and Yvonne Corcoran, DCU
In Ireland, nurseries reopened at the end of June 2020 for the children of essential or front-line workers, while primary and post-primary schools reopened nationwide in late August or early September. We have examined the epidemiology of COVID-19 in the daily reports from Ireland in combination with the 14-day epidemiology reports of Covid-19 to look at the incidence of Covid-19 in various age groups since schools reopened.
Covid-19 and children up to 4 years
Cumulative Covid-19 positivity numbers in children ages 0 to 4 are low compared to all other age cohorts.
In the four-week period from August 2 to August 31, the test positivity rate increased by 44% for this age group, while the increase in cases from September 1 to 28 was 70.3 %. Since social distancing measures are not possible within this cohort, the increase in cases is not unexpected. This increase is not reflected in an increase in the rate of hospitalization or ICU admissions in this age cohort and occurred in the context of an increase in cases in all age cohorts nationwide. There were no deaths in September in this age cohort and the overall fatality rate is zero.
Children from 5 to 14 years old
The cumulative number of positivity for Covid-19 in children ages 5 to 14 is slightly higher, but remains low compared to all adult cohorts.
Using the month of August as a reference, we saw a 58.6% increase in test positivity in this age cohort. This is not associated with the schools as they have not yet reopened. From September 1 to September 28, the percentage increase was 89%. This increase is not reflected in an increase in the rate of hospitalization or ICU admissions and occurred in the context of an increase in cases in all age cohorts nationwide. There were no deaths in September in this age cohort and the overall fatality rate is zero.
What did the data on 15-24 year olds see?
The 15-24 age group experienced a significant increase in numbers since August, which was before the reopening of primary and post-primary schools. This category represented 9.01% of all cases in August, increasing to 11.81% in September. This increase is not reflected in an increase in the rate of ICU hospitalization or admissions and occurred in the context of an increase in cases in all age cohorts nationwide. There were no deaths in September in this age cohort and the overall case fatality rate remains at 0.02%.
Again, using the month of August as a baseline, there was a 27.7% increase in cases involving 15-24 year olds between August 2 and 31. High schools had reopened on September 1, and the increase in cases rose to 57.8% between then and September 28.
More cases observed in women than in men
There is a gender division in the cases of Covid-19 children. There are more confirmed cases of Covid-19 in women in the last four months than in men in children up to 4 years of age (boys 51.3 – 143.3 per 100,000 and girls 52.5 – 161.9 per 100,000).
The outlook is mixed for children ages 5 to 14, women have more confirmed cases in June and July and men have a higher number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in August and September (per 100.00 of the population) . There are many more confirmed COVID-19 cases in women (432.1 – 832.2 per 100,000) in the past four months than in men (227.4 – 603.1 per 100,000) in the 15-24 age group.
From RTÉ’s You OK? podcast, Jan Ní Fhlana, again on how parents and children are coping since back to school and what they can do to plan for a long winter ahead
‘Children have a low rate of hospitalization, ICU admission and mortality from Covid-19’
In the first two weeks after the schools reopened, approximately 26% of the national tests were conducted with children up to 10 years of age and the positivity rate in the second week was 1.9%. As of last week, the HSE reported that more than 4,000 children and teachers have been screened for coronavirus since schools reopened with 264 total cases linked to schools. This significant increase in the number of tests within the school-age population is a reflection of the understandable anxiety of parents, teachers, children, and society.
From the data to date, it is clear that children have a low rate of hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality from Covid-19. However, spill-over effects from overburdened healthcare systems, loss of family income due to pandemic-related unemployment, and disruptions to services for children can be substantial and widespread.
If we are to understand the true impact of this pandemic on infant health, well-being, and mortality, it is vital to understand the prevailing levels and trends in infant infection rates, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and mortality rate over time. This will allow a more complete description of the total impact of Covid-19 on the physiological, psychological, emotional and educational child population.
Dr. Carol Barron is an assistant professor in the School of Nursing, Psychotherapy and Community Health at DCU. Dr. Yvonne Corcoran is an Assistant Professor (Child Nursing) in the DCU School of Nursing, Psychotherapy and Community Health.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the opinions of RTÉ
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