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The State must move to Level 5 on the Covid-19 roadmap, since the measures currently in force do not sufficiently control the disease, as evidenced by the “high volume of community transmission,” public health officials have told the Government.
The letter sent Sunday by the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly, seen by The Irish Times, warns of a “significant and deteriorating” epidemiological situation.
Recommends that Level 5 measures be introduced starting at midnight tonight for four weeks. He says that NPHET is sensitive to the impact on businesses, individuals and families, but that action is “the only opportunity to get this disease back under control and keep schools open.”
It says a gradual approach would ultimately result in the implementation of Level 5 measures, while the immediate enactment of the toughest measures will prevent deaths, protect vulnerable people, and allow schools to remain open.
“The proposed measures will only be effective if there is broad acceptance and adherence by society during the next four-week period,” he warns.
“Nphet cautions that it is vital to do everything in our power now to stop the current trajectory at the national level and suppress the virus to a low level of transmission before the winter months.”
Government members have privately expressed surprise at the scope of the latest NPHET councils and the way they emerged. Medical Director and NPHET member Dr. Tony Holohan will meet with leaders from Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party on Monday to discuss the recommendations.
Community spread
The letter states that the measures currently in place do not sufficiently control the disease, as evidenced by the “high volume of community transmission and sustained increases in key indicators” since Thursday.
Metrics cited include total number of cases that increased by 6 percent in the last week of September, increases in disease incidence rates at five, seven, and 14 days, an increase in the proportion of positive tests, and increases in the level of infection among people over 65 years of age.
It also points to 31 outbreaks open in nursing homes, seven of which have been reported in the last week. There are 25 outbreaks among vulnerable communities, 10 in direct provision centers, seven in homeless services, and seven in nomadic communities.
NPHET wrote that admissions to critical care services have increased to an average of two a day, with 243 of the 281 critical care beds now occupied.
He said that if current trends continue, on November 7 between 1,600 and 2,300 cases per day will be reported, and that 43 people per day will be admitted to the hospital by that date.
“In light of the above, NPHET believes that robust and proactive steps must now be taken to achieve very significant suppression of the disease with a reproduction number well below 1.0,” the letter says.
Calls for an emphasis on communications that “provide clarity on current measures.” It says there must be “immediate activation” by state agencies to ensure that necessary services are in areas such as physical and mental health and social care.
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