[ad_1]
Covid-19 transmission has been suppressed in the last week, the incidence rate dropped by 36%, and health chiefs declared the first positive indications for three months.
The number of cases, the rate of positivity of the tests and the rate of reproduction of the virus are decreasing.
The latest figures indicate that the Level 5 restrictions are working and will raise hopes that the strict national lockdown can be eased in the four-week review period.
However, health chiefs cautioned against such thinking, saying now is not the time for complacency, as the virus will seize any opportunity to spread rapidly again.
Professor Philip Nolan, chair of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Models Advisory Group, urged people to abide by the restrictions and continue their efforts to suppress the virus.
“When we achieve this type of repression, the important thing is that it lasts. We must be encouraged that our efforts are beginning to work, but take this as a sign to keep up those efforts. This is not the time to relax.”
Similarly, medical director Dr. Tony Holohan said people should not “get ahead” of lifting restrictions by socializing more, and should refrain from planning Christmas events and throwing parties.
“We don’t want people to go ahead and undertake activities that can [promote] the spread of the virus “.
There were six Covid-related deaths and 772 new cases of the virus recorded today.
Dublin reported the most cases with 228, followed by Cork with 120.
Dr. Desmond Hickey, Deputy Medical Director, said; “Ireland has seen a reduction in its 7-day incidence rate of 36% compared to the previous 7 days.
“Only in four European countries was there a negative percentage change. Ireland is one of those countries, with a percentage decrease of more than 30 in the seven-day incidence rate compared to the previous seven days.”
The reproduction rate of the virus is close to 1.0, a key indicator to control the spread.
The test’s positivity rate is also declining, peaking at 7.9 percent and is now at 5.3 percent.
However, Professor Nolan said that hospital and ICU admissions lag behind changes in the number of cases.
There are currently 325 Covid patients in the hospital, with 15 new admissions in the last 24 hours. Of these, 42 Covid patients are currently in the ICU.
Mortality is also on the rise, with 96 deaths from Covid in October, 34 in nursing homes.
Only 36 Covid deaths occurred in September and five in August.
However, he urged that this decline be continuously monitored as the capacity of hospitals and ICUs in Europe is deteriorating rapidly and Ireland could follow suit if the virus starts to spread rapidly again.
Health officials also noted that the data seemed to indicate that level three restrictions can only stabilize the rate of the virus, not reduce the number of cases.
Professor Nolan said Dublin saw an increase in cases even though it went to level three on September 18.
“It is to be expected that after the introduction of the measures … there will be some change a week or two after their introduction.
“What really happened was that the number of cases leveled off almost immediately after those restrictions were applied.
“What that tells us is that people in Dublin started reducing their contacts before the formal measures were introduced.”
However, this stabilization only lasted for two weeks.
“For reasons that we do not fully understand yet, the number of cases started to increase again … it doubled over the next 10 days.”
[ad_2]