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Fight night is getting closer in Jacksonville, Florida, and the UFC 249 card is bringing fireworks back to our screens, with a lineup of spectacular matchups that seem ready to produce incredible action. For all the abuse he’s getting, good man Dana White for making it happen. It is certainly improving our weekend.
Let’s take a look at the main card and look for the best value bets for this weekend’s biggest fights.
Read: Our betting preview breakdown for the UFC 249 Preliminaries
TONY FERGUSON VS. JUSTIN GAETHJE
Two of the most violent men in the UFC will go head-to-head in the main event with the UFC interim lightweight title at stake. It’s a fight that could really go either way, but in a fight where both men seem to thrive putting themselves in harm’s way, an ending seems to be inevitable.
Gaethje prides himself on being able to walk through anything his opponents can throw at him, and then knock them down with his own willpower and striking power. But in Ferguson, he may have found his rival.
Ferguson not only hits people, but busts them.
“El Cucuy” has the ability to use his elbows to facially disfigure his opponents in the course of a fight, and his matches often turn into bloody wars.
But while his elbows may attract the most attention, it’s Ferguson’s submission game that could give him the best route to an arrest victory here. He has eight presentation finishes to his name, including tap outs by Edson Barboza, Lando Vannata and Kevin Lee, and I don’t think it’s out of the question that we’ll see another this weekend.
Ferguson loves to lock up D’Arce’s choke from the clinch, then drag his man onto the mat for the finale, and in a fight where they go to fight in a phone booth, that technique can be unlocked for him multiple times through of the fight.
A Ferguson submission victory comes at an attractive price of 11/4 and offers solid value for the main event crash.
VALUE COLLECTION: FERGUSON BY SHIPPING @ 4/11
Read: 5 Horror Tackles That Somehow Only Won Yellow Cards
HENRY CEJUDO VS. DOMINICK CRUZ
Can the defending UFC bantamweight champion take back the challenge of the greatest UFC bantamweight champion of all time? That’s the task ahead of Olympic gold medalist and former UFC champion Henry Cejudo on Saturday night.
He takes on two-time former champion Dominick Cruz, whose awkward fighting style has proven to be like the UFC equivalent of a Rubik’s cube for opposing fighters over the years.
But Cejudo is an elite athlete who is reaching his peak. He’s in shape, he’s getting better, and he’s evolving with every fight, and he has the kind of hitting power that can turn a fight on his way when he needs it.
Cruz is technically outstanding, but unlikely to end Cejudo, and he will also return from a three-and-a-half-year layoff after his latest injury nightmare.
In his day, Cruz can beat anyone. But Cejudo has the intelligence to make sure he’s on top of things here.
He is the best fighter, the best striker and has been more active lately. It can go a long way, but 6/4 in a Cejudo card win is good enough to consider a value choice.
CHOICE OF VALUE: HENRY CEJUDO BY POINTS @ 6/4
FRANCIS NGANNOU VS. JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK
The heavyweight showdown between knocked out artists Francis Ngannou and Jairzinho Rozenstruik seems like a fireworks guarantee, and a knockout ending, but unless you’re picking Rozenstruik to knock out “The Predator” (a tempting 4/1), no there is real value in supporting Ngannou to end the fight with his fists.
However, there is a path to victory that virtually no one is talking about. Ngannou has shown in the past that if the situation arises, he is very happy to end someone by submission. And while punching introductions can be more complicated than working on strike during these socially distant times, Ngannou has it in his locker to surprise Rozenstruik by taking down the big kickboxer and possessing him on the mat.
Chances are we’ll see two big, strong and powerful men trying it out, but if you want a value pick that can offer a sizable payout, the 9/1 in a Ngannou submission victory may be worth it.
CHOICE OF VALUE: FRANCIS NGANNOU BY SEND @ 9/1
CALVIN KATTAR VS. JEREMY STEPHENS
Two of the world’s toughest 145lbs go head-to-head on the main card, while rising contender Calvin Kattar takes on veteran veteran Jeremy Stephens in another seemingly exciting fight. Well, he was supposed to weigh 145 pounds, but Stephens marginally missed the cut at 4.5 pounds. Good job Jeremy.
Stephens is a heavy-handed savage who appears to have improved with age and added weight. should It gives him even more power, but in Kattar he faces a man who seems ready to step forward and fight for the title.
Kattar lost to Russian contender Zabit Magomedsharipov last time, but that fight, which was originally supposed to be five rounds, ended in three rounds, and the pair went to scorecards with Magomedsharipov’s gas tank empty and Kattar started coming. in theirs.
He proved that Kattar is not only ready to step forward, but is also capable of hanging out with one of the world’s most complicated fighters. Stephens is much easier to solve, although he will have to be careful with the devastating power of “Lil’ Heathen “.
However, Kattar does have a fighting IQ that matches his skill set, and I think the smart bet here is to lead him to claim victory on scorecards after an exciting battle.
VALUE COLLECTION: CALVIN KATTAR BY POINTS @ 5/4
GREG HARDY VS. YORGAN DE CASTRO
The main card opener will feature two heavy hitting heavyweights that fight with the same goal: knocking your opponent unconscious as fast as possible. Both Greg Hardy and Yorgan De Castro have the power to do exactly that, but it’s Hardy who offers perhaps the best long-term value here.
De Castro will be VERY dangerous at first, but I suspect Hardy’s cardio and longevity in this fight will see him come out of an early storm before using his evolving fighting game to mix things up and take away from “The Mad Titan.”
It may not produce an ending, but I think if Hardy mixes up his game, he will be able to win by decision. 5/13 is a good price for that result.
COLLECTION OF VALUE: GREG HARDY BY POINTS @ 13/5
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