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For a tiebreaker for third place in a made-up tournament, this one has a feeling that he must win for Andy Farrell’s Ireland.
It seems like a lifetime ago, but before the Six Nations were postponed in March, Ireland had just been completely outclassed by England at Twickenham and the only saving grace, they insisted, was a game against Italy in two weeks, a chance. . to correct some errors.
The suspension of the tournament meant that the players had to get into the pot of a miserable performance during what turned out to be a seven-month international hiatus.
In its current state, Ireland is due to start its 2021 Six Nations in Wales on February 7, just over two months away.
And if their last three outings before that turn out to be made up of another absence against England, an unconvincing win over Georgia and a Dublin loss to Scotland, then it will be a long winter.
The statistics are in favor of Ireland, but they are not an accurate reading of the ambient temperature.
Scotland’s last win in Dublin came in 2010 at Croke Park and Ireland have emerged victorious in eight of the last nine heats, the strangest being a 2017 clash at Murrayfield.
But Scotland have improved enormously since a 27-3 defeat at the World Cup just over a year ago and showed signs that they were getting closer during the defeat on February 19-12.
In fact, that’s considered a match that literally got out of their hands, Stuart Hogg dropped a ball over the line in the second half.
Scotland finished second in Group B thanks to their 28-17 away win over Italy and walkover points from the game against Fiji that was canceled, while they lost 22-15 to France in Edinburgh.
“We have been together for the past two months and from a coaches perspective it has been a real pleasure to see the group come together and work so hard to improve both individually and collectively,” said head Gregor Townsend, who has seen his team win their last three road games, a streak that hasn’t improved since 1927.
“We look forward to taking on Ireland in what will be an opportunity to continue our progress away from home once again.”
Townsend has made six changes to his starting XV with South African medium Jaco van der Walt, who has just qualified in residence and is making his debut.
Duncan Taylor, Darcy Graham, Blair Cowan, Huw Jones and Rory Sutherland return to the side.
Winger Duhan van der Merwe is at the top of the ‘meters won’ list for the tournament, the Edinburgh midfielder has achieved 186, as well as beating 12 defenders, another Fall Nations Cup record.
Van der Walt will face the return of Johnny Sexton, whose inclusion should serve to galvanize a team, which Farrell admits he has struggled to believe.
All you need to know: Ireland v Scotland
“It’s a huge boost for the guys, it brings a feel to the group that makes everyone feel good and ready to go to a great Test Match,” Farrell said of his captain’s return from a groin strain.
That they shouldn’t need their 35-year-old leader for that is a matter for another day.
Sexton is also one of six changes to the team that worked to victory last week over Georgia, with Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw rejoining in midfield.
In the pack, Cian Healy, Peter O’Mahony and Caelan Doris return. Ulster mainstay Eric O’Sullivan will become the twelfth new international of 2020 should he appear as a substitute.
Ireland’s camp has been busy emphasizing that they are creating opportunities but falling short of execution, most notably in the loss to France at the end of the Six Nations and in the two-shot victory over Georgia.
“Everybody is afraid of failure, to be honest,” said Mike Catt, the attacking coach who joined the team after the World Cup.
Catt wants proof of Ireland’s improvement #RTERugby #RTESport # AutumnNationsCup #IREvSCO pic.twitter.com/0wPFajyDz0
– RTÉ Rugby (@RTErugby) December 4, 2020
“I think performance anxiety, for us under Andy, is … you get rid of that anxiety by preparing well, putting yourself in good positions, really putting yourself in a good frame of mind.
“Rugby union is about making decisions, whether it’s in the attack of the defense or in your kicking game. I think we’ve made very good progress in certain areas, but there are still certain areas where we have to go up another two or three levels.
“Our execution last week was not acceptable. As a group of coaches, we believe that where we are going is the right way. It takes time.”
This game is almost too tight to call, but the fear of ending the year with a home loss to Scotland should be enough to propel the hosts.
Scotland will come alive and Ireland just needs to look back at the last two weekends to see what that looks like.
Failure to match Scotland in intensity levels will be a terrible indictment of the team’s mental toughness, for whose development they have recruited high-performance coach Gary Keegan.
Defeat here would be a miserable Christmas for Ireland.
Verdict: Ireland
Ireland: Jacob Stockdale, Hugo Keenan, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Keith Earls, Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rob Herring, Andrew Porter, Iain Henderson, James Ryan, CJ Stander, Peter O’Mahony, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Eric O’Sullivan, John Ryan, Quinn Roux, Josh van der Flier, Jamison Gibson-Park, Ross Byrne, Chris Farrell.
Scotland: Stuart Hogg, Darcy Graham, Chris Harris, Duncan Taylor, Duhan van der Merwe, Jaco van der Walt, Ali Price; Rory Sutherland, Fraser Brown, Zander Fagerson, Scott Cummings, Jonny Gray, Blade Thomson, Jamie Ritchie, Matt Fagerson.
Replacements: Stuart McInally, Oli Kebble, Willem Nel, Sam Skinner, Blair Cowan, Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, Huw Jones, Sean Maitland.
Referee: Matt carley
Follow Ireland v Scotland this Saturday through our live blog on RTÉ.ie / sport and the RTÉ News app, watch live on RTÉ 2 starting at 1.30pm, or listen to live commentary on RTÉ Radio’s Saturday Sport 1
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