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The risk of a second national shutdown to curb Covid-19 may be waning for now, but local shutdowns are seen as the way of the future in response to alarming outbreaks of the virus that threaten to spiral out of control.
It has been a punishing few weeks for Kildare, and to a lesser extent for Laois and Offaly, the first “test cases” for the county lockdowns.
Public health officials have proclaimed that local closures work. But now is the time for an in-depth diagnosis of what they did right and wrong.
Synchronization
The large factory outbreaks in Kildare, Laois and Offaly unfolded in the week beginning July 27.
The outbreaks were explosive and the cases leaked into the community. The lockdown measures were hastily announced on August 7 to the surprise of individuals and businesses in all three counties.
Kildare James Lawless’ Fianna Fáil TD said that if another local blackout is to be imposed, ideally people would receive 24-hour notice, although he conceded that this could increase transmission.
Was the significance of the Midlands outbreak recognized and controlled well in advance?
Public health teams reacted more quickly to a recent outbreak at a factory in Tipperary.
Tests
If there is another crash, the test and trace system should be in full gear. Initially, people in Kildare referred for the test had to go to a facility in Dublin, which carried the risk that people without transport would not take advantage of the test. Then a self-service center was opened in Punchestown.
Dr. Ronan Glynn, Acting Medical Director, has addressed the lessons to be learned about testing and tracing. Over a weekend, the response time for tests went from 48 hours to four days. Valuable time was lost.
County boundaries
The decision to fence entire counties rather than local areas where factories are located appears to have been the correct one and is likely to be repeated. The evidence from the trials was that cases related to the outbreaks spread across counties and, in some cases, spread to Co Carlow.
Measurement menu
The restrictions were described as low-level, although some locals viewed them as draconian.
Cafes, restaurants and pubs in the three counties had to close as of midnight on the day of the announcement, as well as cinemas, gyms, theaters and museums. Sporting events and matches were banned.
People were allowed to travel only within their own county, unless it was for work, medical appointments, or family reasons. The upcoming lockdown is likely to involve the same restrictions, aimed at keeping people from mixing as much as possible.
Local lockout triggers
There seems to be no set formula for local locking, although it would help if some criteria were posted.
Maynooth University professor Philip Nolan yesterday addressed the speed and volume of the breakouts that could drive the action.
The problem arises when workplace-related cases cause more outbreaks in homes and extended families. In that case, it is spreading rapidly and the only remedy may be some kind of closure for two to three weeks.
Communication and political pressure
The closure was unbearable and morally discouraging for many business owners.
Many were confused and unclear on the full reasoning behind the move. This led to heavy pressure on local TDs and councilors to push for concessions, early publication, and financial support.
The next lockdown would benefit from better updates on progress on different fronts, because people cling to hope in these difficult situations. It is important to emphasize that it is for the common good and can save the lives of people’s family, friends and neighbors.
Schools
Schools reopened in Kildare while it was still in partial lockdown but at worst. Future plans will need to specifically state what will happen once a local closure is announced.
The UK is ahead of us here, with a new guide listing four tiers of lockdown levels.
Level one, with the lowest level of restrictions, would keep schools open. Level four involves distance learning for all students except the children of key workers and vulnerable students.
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