The release of a Covid-19 vaccine to the general population is unlikely to occur until well into the middle of next year, a leading scientist said.
Ireland has advance purchase agreements with several companies that make vaccines, including one for 2.3 million doses of Pfizer BioNTech jab, which is expected to be approved later this month.
However, the first shipment is expected to be only part of that order with the rest to be delivered throughout 2021.
Our order for the Moderna vaccine, which is expected to be approved in early January, is for just 880,000 doses.
Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines need to be given in two doses, so the volume that arrives will only be enough for half that number of people.
Highest hopes rest on the University of Oxford’s AstraZeneca vaccine with a pre-order of 3.3 million doses
But now it’s unclear when this will be given the green light.
The European Medicines Agency may choose to authorize its original dosing regimen of two full doses, which is only 62% effective.
The producers’ discovery that it could be 90% effective if a person is given half a dose and then a full dose is tested on only 3,000 volunteers,
The European Medicines Agency may want to wait until more trials are done on the second version before approving it.
The World Health Organization has established a 50% efficacy threshold for approving a vaccine.
There are also agreements with Johnson and Johnson for 2.2 million doses of their vaccine and also CureVAc, but the doses that come from that potential vaccine are yet to be clarified.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin said yesterday that there are likely to be limited volumes of vaccines in January and February and that they may not be available in significant quantities until May or June.
When asked about the potential supply, Professor Mills said the United States, which has started its vaccination campaign, is not expected to receive its next batches of the Pfizer vaccine until June or July.
He said the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine appears to be as effective as the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.
“From the data presented in The lancet the level of confidence is quite low as to the certainty that can be had that the percentage of effectiveness is 90% and not 80% or 60%.
“They also looked at the ability of the vaccine to prevent infections, unlike Pfizer or Moderna.”
When they looked at the lower half of the dose, it was around 50 to 60 percent, but there was no way with confidence that it could be said to prevent infection, he added.
“People must be realistic when talking about herd immunity. They need to read the data.
“It could be that the vaccine reduces the level of virus in most people and slows down transmission.
“The vaccine will prevent Covid-19 disease in most people, but it may not prevent infection.”
It was natural that Moderna, as an American company, gave the most to the United States, said Professor Kingston. “Deployment to the general population will be slower after high-risk groups. People must be patient. “