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Every 100 reduction in daily Covid-19 cases will result in 120 fewer hospitalizations, 15 fewer intensive care admissions and 20 fewer deaths over the next month, Professor Philip Nolan said.
Speaking at a briefing by the National Public Health Emergencies Team (Nphet), the chairman of the Irish Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group, Professor Nolan, said the number of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations were growing by about 5 percent. per day and intensive care admissions by 3 percent.
Although Covid-19 in the state remains primarily focused on the 19-24 age group, cases are now increasing in those over 65 and in nursing homes, Professor Nolan said.
Another 1,066 Covid-19 cases were confirmed in the state on Thursday, along with three additional deaths.
As the state entered Level 5 Covid restrictions, Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan said there were concerns about public acceptance of the increasing demands for limited movements and behaviors.
“It’s no wonder people find another request to do this all over again as an enormously difficult challenge,” he said.
“I’m not going to get into the prediction of failure; I will express optimism that we can do this. “
However, while Nphet’s goal is to reduce daily case rates to 100 by December, from the current level of around 1,000 to 1,200 new cases per day, data presented at Thursday’s briefing illustrated the virus’s upward trajectory.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr. Heather Burns noted that the 14-day infection incidence rate had topped 300 for the first time, now standing at 302, compared to just three at the end of June.
“The risk of you being exposed to Covid-19 is now 100 times higher than four months ago,” he said.
The “R” number, which indicates the reproductive level of the virus, is currently between 1.3 and 1.4, with the ambition to see it drop to 0.5 after the latest round of social restrictions.
For every 1,000 positive cases in the age group 45 and under, 12 are hospitalized and one is admitted to intensive care. However, for those over 65, those numbers rise dramatically to 180 and 30 respectively.
Nursing homes
Dr. Holohan cautioned that nursing homes cannot protect themselves from Covid-19 outbreaks unless the public comes together to reduce rising levels of community broadcasts.
Nphet revealed six more outbreaks in nursing homes and community hospitals as of October 17. There are now 33 such outbreaks, with 451 linked cases, but the team stressed that only a national response to the virus’ resurgence would help reduce the numbers.
“The degree to which this virus spreads the way it does in the community poses a risk to all of those settings,” said Dr. Holohan.
“As long as we maintain a high transmission in the community as we have right now, it will be impossible for us to provide complete protection to nursing homes,” even where protection measures have been implemented, he said.
Dr. Colm Henry, HSE’s clinical director, said 132 nursing homes were receiving some form of support, including 35 receiving “extensive support,” such as from Covid response teams.
Dr. Holohan was asked about concerns regarding the contact tracing system and its ability to keep up, but said the most important focus now was not tracing, but public response to Level 5 measures and its ability to slow down community transmission.
“We have a much, much greater challenge now in terms of the level of community transmission in the population. . . and that is spreading in places that we have not been able to identify, “he said.
“We will not contact the track to get out of this; we have to take other measures as a society ”.
Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, its Department of Health reported 1,042 new cases of Covid-19, as well as five more deaths.
Stormont’s business will continue as usual despite four of the 10 incumbent ministers in the North Executive isolating themselves, Prime Minister Arlene Foster said Thursday.
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