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Britain’s leading scientific experts have warned that Covid-19 cases are doubling every week and could reach 50,000 a day by mid-October if no new restrictions are imposed.
Medical Director Chris Whitty and Senior Scientific Advisor Patrick Vallance said that could mean 200 deaths a day from the disease a month after that.
“The challenge, therefore, is to make sure that the doubling time does not remain at seven days. That takes speed, it takes action, and it takes just enough to be able to reduce that, ”Sir Patrick said.
The two men gave a televised briefing in Downing Street in which they described the current state of the pandemic, but did not respond to questions from the media and did not make specific policy recommendations.
Around 70,000 people in Britain are believed to have the virus and, although the number of new cases recorded daily is around 4,000, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates the figure to be more likely at around 6,000.
Less than 8 percent of the British population has been infected with the virus, although the percentage in London is double.
Cold weather
Professor Whitty said “the seasons are against us” as cold weather makes it difficult to fight respiratory diseases.
“If this continues along the way, the number of deaths directly from Covid could increase in an exponential curve, and it can go from small numbers to really very large numbers,” he said. “In a bad way, we have literally turned a corner, although only relatively recently. At this point, the seasons are against us, we are now entering the seasons, late autumn and winter, that benefit respiratory viruses and are very likely to benefit Covid as they do the flu.
Britain’s Covid-19 alert level was raised to four on Monday, meaning that the spread of the virus is high or increasing exponentially. Scotland’s Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon pointed to the imposition of stricter restrictions on social contacts and the Welsh government extended local closures to cover much of South Wales.
‘Vulnerable and exposed’
Labor’s shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth said the party would support more restrictions but criticized the government’s inability to improve its testing and contact tracing system.
“None of us want to see another blockage or circuit break, but of course we understand if it is necessary. But the testing, tracing, and isolation should have been fixed. That failure has left us vulnerable and exposed. Now we must act quickly to save lives and minimize damage, “he told the House of Commons.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces a revolt from Conservative MPs who are unhappy with the radical nature of the restrictions introduced in the past six months and want more oversight from Parliament from now on.
Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Backbenchers Committee, wants a debate in the Commons before the powers of government on the coronavirus are extended.
“The British are not used to being treated like children. The government has become used to ruling by decree regarding the coronavirus issue without the debate and discussion and the usual votes in parliament that we would expect on any other matter, ”he told the BBC.
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