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The state’s response to Covid-19 is to enter “uncharted territory” during Christmas, at the risk of cases growing rapidly, the Health Minister said.
Stephen Donnelly said that both the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) and the Government expected the level of cases to increase from the second week of December, and that a rapid increase could lead to the introduction of new measures in January. .
“However, we are in unknown territory,” he said. “The combination of measures that are being introduced alongside Christmas is obviously new. It’s a unique time of year where there is a lot of socializing, so the level of uncertainty is quite high for everyone. ”
Donnelly said levels of the disease were higher than when restrictions were relaxed during the summer, meaning it could grow faster.
‘Rapid growth’
“One of the concerns we all have is that we are getting out of the restrictions. Despite the incredible progress, the rate is still significantly higher than when we came out of the first wave, ”he told The Irish Times. “Because the cases are already higher, the model suggests that the rapid growth will occur much earlier this time.
“The truth is that nobody knows exactly what will be needed in January,” he said. “Is it possible that additional measures should be introduced? If the cases are in rapid and uncontrolled exponential growth in early January, obviously we would have to review the situation. “
Donnelly said the government had largely sided with Nphet’s advice in deciding to reopen. It had extended the ban on domestic restrictions to allow the hospitality industry to reopen in early December, which should slow the increase in cases, “but then during the two weeks leading up to Christmas, it’s hard to predict.”
As the government prepares to reopen hotels, retail stores, hair salons, churches, gyms and museums on Tuesday, Donnelly said he did not expect to introduce restrictive measures before the end of December. Data released over the weekend suggests that Ireland has overtaken much of the rest of Europe in managing the second wave of the virus.
Necessary intervention
Nphet’s most recent advice to the government argued that ultimately a three-week intervention might be necessary if cases approach 400 a day.
The Health Department confirmed 299 more cases and two more deaths related to Covid-19 on Sunday. A total of 2,052 deaths have now been linked to the disease and a total of 72,241 infections diagnosed.
Elsewhere, documents released under freedom of information laws show that ministers were told before the second shutdown that further restrictions would be necessary even if the cases were 100 a day after the measures were lifted.
Nphet’s modeling shown during a meeting on October 17 argued that “we will need more interventions, but they may be shorter,” according to the documents. The advice, given during a meeting of high-level ministers that immediately preceded the introduction of Level 5, was based on a six-week lockdown introduced on October 9.
He assumed that if the measures were lifted on November 20, the cases would be around 100 per day and then likely to grow to around 300 per day in early January, and argued that a three-week intervention might then be necessary.
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