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British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab travels to Washington to speak with senior American officials and senior Democrats, where pro-Irish politicians are expected to pressure him to explain whether the UK intends to violate international law and undermine the Belfast Agreement.
Irish Ambassador to the US Daniel Mulhall has been lobbying Washington, warning that the UK’s latest dispute with the EU may still lead to the resurgence of a hard border on the island of Ireland.
With the US presidential election less than 50 days away and Democratic candidate Joe Biden still the favorite to win, according to polls, Raab will be eager to reassure members of the Senate and House of Representatives on the UK plans to review the EU withdrawal agreement.
The pro-Irish lobby in Washington rivals that of the UK, and Democrats, who tend to be skeptical of Brexit, want the dispute resolved without threats, real or imagined, to peace in Northern Ireland.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi warned last week that there would be absolutely no chance for Congress to pass a trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom if the United Kingdom violated its international agreements and Brexit undermined the agreements of Belfast. Any such trade deal needs the support of two-thirds of the Senate, so it requires substantial support from Democratic senators.
A key target of UK lobbying is also likely to be Richard Neal, chairman of the Forms and Means committee, which oversees trade deals. In a statement last week, he noted that the United States was a guarantor of the Belfast Agreement.
“I urge both parties to respect the terms of this joint agreement, particularly with regard to the treatment of Northern Ireland, in accordance with international law,” Neal said. “The UK’s exit from the EU at the end of this year and any trade deal between the US and the UK must preserve the Good Friday deal, which has maintained peace and prosperity for the British and European peoples since 1998.
“I sincerely hope that the British government upholds the rule of law and fulfills the commitments it made during the Brexit negotiations, especially with regard to the Irish border protocols.”
Tony Blinken, Mr. Biden’s senior foreign policy adviser, warned on Twitter: “Joe Biden is committed to preserving the hard-won peace and stability in Northern Ireland.
“As the UK and the EU work on their relationship, any arrangement must protect the Good Friday deal and prevent a return from a hard border.”
Biden has Irish roots and will be suspicious of anything that brings the threat of a hard border closer.
A keynote address at the Atlantic Council think tank on Thursday may be Raab’s biggest public opportunity to explain the UK government’s thinking on Ireland, as well as Iran. The UK disagrees with the Trump administration over the US claim that it has the right to impose UN sanctions on Iran.
The UK also questions the practical impact if the US unilaterally declares that it has the right to order UN member states to reimpose sanctions lifted in 2015. The US already has punitive secondary sanctions against Iran.
Like the United States, the United Kingdom would like to see the UN embargo on the sale of conventional arms to Iran extended, but it does not see a way in Russia and China would not use the veto of the security council to block such a move. – Guardian
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