Decreasing the number of pupils in school could threaten small schools



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The number of children attending primary school is expected to decline by approximately 20 percent (more than 100,000 students) in the next 15 years, according to projections from the Department of Education.

The sharp reduction can lead to a teacher surplus at the primary level and could threaten the future of some small schools.

However, school leaders say the decline is an opportunity to reduce class sizes in the state, which according to surveys are among the highest in Europe.

Official projections show that enrollment at the primary level peaked last year and is likely to decline through 2034. This decline is based in part on a projected decline in the average number of children born to women of childbearing age.

This measure has fallen dramatically, from just over two children in 2010 to around 1.77 last year. The report projects that it will drop to 1.6 by 2031 and will remain stable thereafter. The impact of Covid-19 on births is unknown and has not been included in the model, it adds.

By contrast, high school enrollment is forecast to rise sharply over the next four years, reaching a record 410,000. This is due to a population increase that is moving from the primary sector to the second level.

However, the decline in the number of students at the primary level is likely to raise new concerns about the future of small schools.

Almost half, 44%, of elementary schools have four or fewer teachers. They represent only 15 percent of the student population. The schools that are considered the highest risk are one or two teachers, of which there are about 550, and are mainly based in rural areas on the west coast.

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