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The number of deaths from Covid-19 is expected to rise and could rise to more than 100 per day in the coming weeks, much higher than the highs experienced in the first wave last spring, health experts warned.
The warning came as pressure on hospitals caring for a growing number of Covid-19 patients increased Sunday night. The nurses said patients at Letterkenny University Hospital in Donegal, most with some sort of respiratory problems, were being treated in seven ambulances outside the facility due to lack of space in the emergency department.
A spokeswoman for the hospital said it was “an extremely busy weekend” with a “large number of patients presenting with suspected or confirmed Covid-19, many of whom required admission to hospital.”
The hospital had few beds available, resulting in delays in admission specifically for patients going to the area dedicated to Covid-19, the spokeswoman said.
It secured additional staff Sunday night, allowing it to open 11 more beds to respond to demand.
Another 6,888 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and eight additional deaths were recorded on Sunday.
Health Minister Stephen Donnelly said Sunday night, however, that there were some positive signs regarding Covid-19. But he warned that the trajectory continued to increase dramatically for infections of the British variant of Covid-19.
Getting better
The minister said that indicators of new cases were improving, with a reduction in positivity rates, in the number of cases referred for testing by GPs and a drop in the number of close contacts.
The median number of close contacts is now believed to be below three contacts per diagnosed Covid case, less than half the average of 6.3 contacts per person on Dec. 29.
However, given the really high number of cases reported since Christmas, he said the situation regarding hospital beds and ICU availability remained “very serious.”
There were 1,452 Covid-19 patients in hospitals on Sunday afternoon, of whom 125 were in intensive care units.
The Health Department said 100 more people were hospitalized in the 24 hours through Sunday afternoon.
Immunologist professor Luke O’Neill said there was a “risk” that the number of deaths per day could rise to 100 or more. The highest daily toll so far was on April 20 when 77 deaths were reported.
He said that the Covid situation was a “maelstrom at the present time” and was “highly unpredictable.” A small number of large outbreaks in nursing homes could further increase death rates.
Professor Kingston Mills, Director of the Institute for Biomedical Sciences at Trinity College, said: “It is inevitable that we will see an increase in daily deaths as the daily rate has increased dramatically in the last two to three weeks.
“We will not see the effect of daily cases on mortality rates for 10 to 14 days.”
Emerging trends
HSE Executive Director Paul Reid expressed concern about growing trends, saying a new initiative had already been launched to allow public patients to use up to 30 percent of their capacity, or about 600 beds, in private hospitals.
However, an association representing private-sector physicians warned about what it called the slow rate of vaccinating staff in independent hospitals.
The Association of Medical and Dental Consultants said there were so far no signs of vaccination of private sector staff in Dublin or Galway. He warned that if private hospital staff became infected and could not go to work, the new agreement with the HSE could fail.
The government working group on Covid-19 vaccination is expected to meet on Monday. Talks took place over the weekend between the HSE and the Irish Medical Organization (IMO) about the involvement of GPs in the rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine if it is approved by regulators in the coming weeks.
On Sunday, the HSE said 600 beds in public hospitals were not in use because staff had contracted Covid-19 or it was considered to be a close contact of a person with the condition.
The HSE said that around 800 employees in nursing homes were also absent due to Covid-19-related issues. The private nursing home sector said there were “significant challenges in maintaining staffing.”
The pressure on Northern Ireland hospitals has also intensified. On Sunday night, the Western Health and Social Care Trust called on off-duty staff in the vicinity of his hospital in Enniskillen to come directly to the hospital to help him cope.
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