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When the prime minister announced his Level 4 restrictions, he warned that this new variant could increase the R-value by more than 0.4.
That in itself is concerning. But now, newly released minutes from the government’s own virus advisory group, NERVTAG, show that the threat could be significantly greater.
You have calculated that the new variant could have raised the R-value by as much as 0.93.
There are many variables and we do not have access to all the data. And the R value is a range. Represents the average number of people each person COVID-19 continues to infect.
But what is absolute is that this new variant is making the pandemic spread faster.
We are also told that it is 70% more transmissible. This variant of the coronavirus it has mutated, as all viruses do, to increase its own survival rate. The more people you can infect, the longer you will live.
This variant has a name: VUI-202012/01. And it will be a challenge trying to contain it.
NERVTAG scientists cautioned: “VUI-202012/01 was observed to have demonstrated exponential growth during a period when national lockdown measures were in place.”
There is always a lag between infections and restrictive measures, but clearly this variant continued to grow and spread very rapidly, even when the restrictions were in place.
The government’s top scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, and chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, were quick to assure us that this variant does not appear to be any more deadly or make its infected hosts more ill.
That is good. But the original virus already has the power to kill or make people seriously ill. Now this variant has proven that it can spread that threat much faster.
That is why the government has Christmas canceled by millions, and Governments across Europe are rushing to impose travel restrictions. to prevent it from infecting its citizens.
We know what follows a large increase in infections: hospitalization. The numbers for London and the South East already show it.
And when there are large numbers of very sick patients admitted to intensive care units, it is tragic that some of these patients die.
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PM: Residents on Level 4 must stay home
But there is good news.
There is no suggestion that this variant is resistant to the new vaccines that are being implemented.
Essentially, it is the same virus. If you change more, vaccines can be modified to be more affective.
This is exactly what happens every year with the flu vaccine. Seasonal strains need an adapted vaccine.
But we haven’t gotten to that point yet. Current vaccines will work. We have to stop the spread of the VUI-202012/01 variant until everyone who needs the jab has had it.
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